Dartmouth College in New Hampshire
New Hampshire is one of the most educated states in America. In a May 2023 survey by U.S. News & World Report, New Hampshire ranked No. 6 among our most educated states -- ahead of Connecticut and Virginia (tied at No. 7) and behind New Jersey (at No. 5). So why, in a CNN poll going into today's New Hampshire primary, did so many Republican respondents give such dumb answers? These people, as a population, clearly are not stupid, so how to explain the answers we are about to reveal from a poll conducted via a fairly deep dive -- asking New Hampshire GOPers how they thought frontrunner Donald Trump would handle six specific issues that might come up if he is elected president in November 2024? Does identifying as a Republican in the age of Trump cause brain cells to start dying?
We don't have an answer to that question, but here is how CNN summarized the responses it received regarding Trump's possible handling of six key issues: (In a moment, we will examine the issues and provide our thoughts on each one, generally expressing our bafflement at how seemingly intelligent New Hampshire residents responded.) But first, on to the CNN summary:
The state’s Republican primary electorate also has a broadly positive outlook on what Trump actually did as president. Looking back on his first term in office, 70% of likely Republican primary voters say that he did more to help the country than hurt it, while 28% say he did more to hurt and 2% that his time in office didn’t make much of a difference.
The survey asked whether Trump would attempt – and whether he would succeed at – six things he’s talked about doing during the campaign: building a wall along the US border with Mexico, appointing a special prosecutor to “go after” President Joe Biden and his family, dismantling the “deep state,” repealing Obamacare and replacing it with another health care law, bringing the war between Russia and Ukraine to an end, and reimposing a travel ban for seven Muslim-majority countries.
Majorities in the GOP electorate say that if he wins, Trump would likely succeed in accomplishing four out of those six: building the wall (71% say he would definitely or probably succeed in doing so), ending the war between Ukraine and Russia (59%), reimposing the travel ban (56%) and appointing a prosecutor to go after the Biden family (53%). Far fewer see Trump as likely to succeed at dismantling the deep state (39%) or repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (34%).
Most New Hampshire residents agree with likely Republican voters that should Trump win the presidency, he is at least probably going to accomplish reimposing the travel ban (58%), appointing a special prosecutor to go after the Biden family (56%) and building the wall (52%). But there are deep partisan divisions in views on his prospects for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia; 71% of Republicans feel he will at least probably succeed in that effort, compared with 33% of independents and 8% of Democrats; 79% of Democrats say that Trump is unlikely to even try to bring the war to an end. And few of any partisan stripe feel he’s likely to repeal and replace the ACA (26% overall).
I can't fathom how intelligent New Hampshire residents could hold such generally positive views of Trump -- given the four criminal indictments (91 counts) he faces, the wretched record he produced in his first term (including a botch job on the COVID pandemic that sent our economy into a spiral and produced 1.2 million American deaths) and his numerous statements that indicate he intends to sweep away the U.S. democracy and replace it with a dictatorship. These things actually sound appealing if you live in New Hampshire?
We'll leave that question dangling and move on to the six issues CNN raised with respondents and provide our thoughts on each one:
(1) CNN issue: Building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico border -- 71 percent of GOP respondents said Trump would definitely or probably succeed in doing so.
Legal Schnauzer says -- Our response to this one is easy. Trump tried and failed to build a wall in his first term, lying all the way that he would get Mexico to pay for it. Based on online reports, the wall wound up being a mishmash of structures along portions of the border, including various forms of barriers and fencing, including one section that is in danger of collapsing. In short there is no contiguous, true wall -- and estimates are that the U.S. wasted $15 billion on the effort, most of it taken from the military budget -- so Trump failed to deliver on his promise. Does anyone seriously think he will get it done on a second go around?
(2) CNN issue: Ending the war between Ukraine and Russia -- 59 percent of respondents said Trump would succeed in ending the war.
Legal Schnauzer says -- Trump has said he could end the war in "24 hours," which is a sign of just how unserious he is on the matter. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called Trump's rhetroric "very dangerous," suggesting he considers Trump more of a hindrance than a help on the matter.
(3) CNN issue: re-imposing a travel ban on seven Muslim-majority countries -- 56 percent of respondents said Trump could achieve this.
Legal Schnauzer says -- Here is how CBS News described the outcome of Trump's first attempt at a travel ban: "The first two bans faced steep challenges in court, but the third version of the ban was upheld by the Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision in 2018. That ban barred nearly all travelers from five mainly Muslim countries, in addition to North Korea and Venezuela. President Biden signed an executive order reversing the ban his first week in office."
This suggests more court challenges would await a second travel ban, plus it's unclear why Trump is targeting Muslims. Yes, Muslim nations were behind the attacks of 9/11, but those happened roughly 15 years before Trump became president. Is he trying to introduce legislation regarding an event that happened that long ago? Is there any logical reason to do that, other than playing to the racist impulses of his MAGA base? A second ban likely would be pointless and ineffective, other than adding to Trump's status as a cult leader.
(4) CNN issue:Appointing a prosecutor to go after the "Biden crime family -- 53 percent of respondents said Trump can achieve this.
Legal Schnauzer says -- ABC News has reported that U.S. House investigators in an ongoing impeachment probe have yet to produce allegations supported by "direct evidence" of wrongdoing. by Joe Biden. Some of the allegations relate to Biden's time as vice president, and even if proven true, those cannot be used to impeach him as president. More importantly, Trump's notion that a president can direct Department of Justice prosecutorial decisions runs contrary to 40 years of U.S. policy. This might be worth asking: In trying to go after Biden, could Trump be setting himself up for another impeachment of his own, a lawsuit, or even an additional criminal indictment? This appears to be another case of Trump engaging in bombast, with little connection to law or facts. Once again, he's like a toddler playing with fireworks and could wind up posing more problems for himself than he does for Biden.
(5) CNN issue: Dismantling the deep state. -- 39 percent of respondents said Trump could achieve this, so even Republicans have little confidence in Trump on this issue.
Legal Schnauzer says -- The plan to break up the administrative state goes beyond Trump to the Heritage Foundation and similar right-wing groups. The long-term goal is to allow Trump to act on his own, with reduced authority for Congress. Is Congress likely to take this well? Probably not. Would such action be unconstitutional? Probably so. Would Trump be effective at acting on his own? An objective review of his first term -- plus his statements that the main goal of a second term is to seek retribution against his political enemies -- suggests the answer is no. In fact, we've seen few signs that Trump even intends to govern in a second term, and he probably is not capable of it anyway.
(6) CNN issue: Repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act -- 34 percent of respondents said Trump could achieve this, so again, even Republicans have little confidence in Trump on this issue.
Legal Schnauzer says -- After Trump's colossal botch job on COVID, do you really want him messing with your health care. Enough said. Mike drop.
