Monday Market Movement

4,490.

That's the strong bounce line on the S&P 500 according to our Fabuluous 5% Rule™ after falling 100 points to 4,450 last week, which gives us 20-point bounces to 4,470 (weak) and 4,490 (strong).  In the bigger picture, we round off so 4,500 is going to be the line of contention for the week and we don't want to be below it at the end and the end of this week is a quad-witching end of quarter for options and futures – could be very volatile indeed.

Last week was the worst week in the market since February and down 100 points really isn't that bad – we've just forgotten what a sell-off looks like after 7 months of not having one.  The volume was high (relatively) during Friday's sharp sell-off, with 89M shares of SPY trading vs 50M(ish) the rest of the week.  So, if we rally back 40 points (strong bounce) in the no-volume futures – it's not very impressive, is it?  

Meanwhile, Daily Covid Deaths are now higher than the peak of last year and I hate to bring it up as it's depressing and it doesn't seem to matter to anyone but we MIGHT have to go back to lockdowns – just before the holidays or, even worse, we may not go back to lockdowns BECAUSE it's right before the holidays and our Corporate Masters are willing to sacrifice a few hundred thousand consumers rather than risk having a bad Q4.

Older Americans still account for the most Covid-19 deaths, but their higher vaccination rates have helped hold down the numbers. About 54% of the overall U.S. population and 63% of eligible people ages 12 and above are fully vaccinated, while the average among nursing homes is 84% for their residents, Federal data show.  Despite gains in protecting seniors, the Delta surge has presented major risks to other groups. CDC data continue to show that, compared with non-Hispanic whites, Black and Hispanic people face almost three times the risk of hospitalization and more than twice the risk of death. The rates among Native Americans are even higher.

The Delta variant has reversed some of the reopening momentum seen earlier in the summer. Rising numbers of…

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