4.9% for Q3 in China.
That's down from 7.9% in Q2 as China struggled with power shortages (which the US did not have) and supply chain issues (which the US does have) as well as Beijing's efforts to reign in the madness in the Real Estate and Technology Sectors before they form a bubble that wipes out everything else (the US just lets it happen). Delta Covid and the semiconductor shortage were also to blame and will also be factors in our own GDP. Get ready to be disappointed.
Compared to Q2, China's Q3 GDP was up just 0.2%, which was up just 1.3% from Q1 – not a great year at all. In an acknowledgment of the mounting risks to the economy, China's Statistics Bureau said that “There are increasing uncertainties in the external environment, while the domestic economic recovery is unstable and unbalanced.”
On Friday, China Central Bank officials suggested it wouldn’t resort to a relatively large stimulus to drive up the growth rate in the final quarter of the year, for example by flooding the financial system with liquidity or slashing benchmark interest rates. Officials also played down risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group, the country’s most indebted property concern, whose troubles have rattled markets and raised questions about China’s overall economic and financial health.
We get our own GDP Report next week but, for now, we'll have to content ourselves with the Beige Book, which is like old Uncle Remus stories (now redacted by Disney) about the economy and has nothing to do with data. This morning we'll get the Industrial Production Report along with the Housing Index, more Housing stuff tomorrow, Wednesday is Beige Book day and Thursday is the Philly Fed along with Leading Economic Indicators and we wrpa it up Friday with PMI.
Earnings, of course, are coming in hot an heavy but it's only the warm-up for Big Tech next week.
IN PROGRESS
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