There are some exception to the rules (aren't there always?). It's a split result if the Pitcher who got the Opening Day nod wasn't on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster the previous season, but if the Starting Pitcher was on the Pirates roster the season before and gets the opening Day nod, he struggles that season or battles to stay even with the previous season results as Kris Benson did. If A.J. Burnett can do that, we'd all be ecstatic, except that Kris Benson who got the Opening Day start in 2003, didn't have a great 2002 and the coaches and Management were hoping and expecting him to return to pre-injury form and it didn't happen and the result was an increase in his ERA.
Below is a graph of all of the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day starters since 2003, their results that season, the season before and the difference. History doesn't look very positive for A.J. Burnett, but in order to break this 20 year streak and move forward, records like this need to be broken, so why not now?
Kris Benson - 2003 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2003
5-9
4.97
1.55
5.8
3.1
2002
9-6
4.70
1.55
5.5
3.5
Difference
-4/-3
-0.27
Even
+0.3
+0.4
Kris Benson was largely "even" across the board, but the problem with him is that the expectations were that he was going to regain his pre-injury form of the 2000 season and post numbers closer to them and he never did nor did he ever really rebound from his injury to become what he could've been
Kip Wells - 2004 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2004
5-7
4.55
1.52
7.5
4.3
2003
10-9
3.28
1.25
6.7
3.5
Difference
-5/+2
-1.27
-0.27
+0.8
-0.8
Kip Wells fell off a cliff. His ERA and WHIP rose tremendously, while he suffered from control issues.
Oliver Perez - 2005 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2005
7-5
5.85
1.67
8.5
6.1
2004
12-10
2.98
1.15
11.0
3.7
Difference
-5/+5
-2.87
-0.52
-2.5
-2.4
Oliver Perez was the next big hope. His 2004 season is one that should forever stick out amongst Pirates Starting Pitchers as one of the best seasons ever for this franchise. His ERA was in the 2's, he had a ridiculously high Strike Out rate, good control. He couldn't be hit... then he gets the Opening Day nod the next season and water cooler/laundry cart kicking was on it's way. One of the most amazing and saddest collapses. If Perez is on any other team, this collapse doesn't happen, but the black cloud over this franchise couldn't resist
Oliver Perez - 2006 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2006
3-13
6.55
1.74
8.1
5.4
2005
7-5
5.85
1.67
8.5
6.1
Difference
-4/-8
-0.70
-0.07
-0.4
+0.7
Pirates management figuring that Oliver Perez's 2005 season was a fluke, went into 2006 giving him the opening Day nod and he answered with results even worse than the previous year, which were really bad to begin with. The free-fall of Oliver Perez continued into epic territory before getting traded to the New York Mets.
Zach Duke - 2007 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2007
3-8
5.53
1.73
3.4
2.1
2006
10-15
4.47
1.50
4.9
2.8
Difference
-7/+7
-1.06
-0.23
-1.5
+0.7
A full season removed from his half season 2005 mastery, the Pirates gave Zach Duke the Opening Day start after a pretty mediocre 2006 season. The response was an extremely ugly 2007 season. Zach Duke's "stuff" was made for bating practice. Nobody swung and missed at his pitches. His Strike Out Rate was embarrassingly low and teams just started smacking hit after hit on him. His ERA in 2006 was already high, it ballooned by a full run in 2007.
Ian Snell - 2008 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2008
7-12
5.42
1.76
7.4
4.9
2007
9-12
3.76
1.33
7.7
2.9
Difference
-2/0
-1.66
-0.43
-0.3
-2.0
Ian Snell was the next Oliver Perez. Ollie "light". He wasn't a left handed pitcher or quite as good as getting the swing and miss but he was a young kid getting ready to come into his prime and was given a new contract by the new Management team of Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly. The Opening Day start was his and in normal fashion, he collapses and becomes a mental head case. His ERA rose by over a run and a half and his control suffered. The end was very near for Ian Snell who never reached his promise and who knows, maybe he would've had he not been an opening Day pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates?
Paul Maholm - 2009 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2009
8-9
4.44
1.44
5.5
2.8
2008
9-9
3.71
1.28
6.1
2.7
Difference
-1/0
-0.73
-0.16
-0.6
+0.1
Paul Maholm was never great but he was an effective enough mid rotation Left Handed starter. He came off a really good 2008 campaign, was rewarded the Opening Day start and saw most of his important stats plummet. His ERA jumped into the mid 4's, his WHIP went into the mid 1.40's and his ability to get a swing and miss was reversing trend and heading towards Zach Duke territory.
Zach Duke - 2010 Opening Day Starter
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2010
8-15
5.72
1.65
5.4
2.9
2009
10-16
4.06
1.31
4.5
2.1
Difference
-2/+1
-1.66
-0.34
+0.9
-0.8
The depth of the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates was bad. So, of course, the mediocre Zach Duke gets another opening Day Start. Duke didn't have a terrible 2009 campaign, but he was so reliant on defense and luck, that anything positive could disappear quickly. One way to make it disappear quickly is name him an Opening Day starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates. His ERA and WHIP increase by ugly standards
Kevin Correia - 2011 Opening Day Starter ** (Previous Season was with San Diego)
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2011
12-11
4.79
1.39
4.5
2.3
2010
10-10
5.40
1.49
7.1
4.0
Difference
+2/-1
+0.61
+0.10
-2.6
+1.7
Keep in mind, Kevin Correia was the first pitcher we have discussed that was not with the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous year. Technically he doesn't count, but I put up his stats anyway. Correia showed a massive improvement over his previous season with San Diego which he had some mental off the field issues that took form. Correia never managed to get back his 2009 results but he put forth mediocre #4 pitcher stats for the Pirates. worse than Kip Wells and Paul Maholm's results. One thing was for certain, Correia was no ace.
Erik Bedard - 2012 opening Day Starter ** (Previous Season with With Boston/Seattle)
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2012
7-14
5.01
1.47
8.5
4.0
2011
5-9
3.62
1.28
8.7
3.3
Difference
+2/-5
-1.39
-0.19
-0.2
-0.7
Erik Bedard like Kevin Correia pitched the previous season with Boston and Seattle, so he doesn't technically count but I put his stats here anyways. Bedard came to the Pirates with a lot of promise. A left handed pitcher that could strike guys out, was something we hadn't seen since Oliver Perez. Bedard was a #1 starter based on previous season results on the Pirates staff. He got the Opening Day start and nose dived at mid season. A back injury likely effected him but those are the pieces of bad luck that follow an opening day starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Bedard paid the price.
Can A.J. Burnett avoid the plunge? History doesn't suggest that it's possible. The best we have seen was a mediocre Kris Benson season get repeated. A.J. Burnett came off a great resurrected season but at his age, anything negative could happen. An injury, mid-age decline. Burnett put up numbers last season that we had season from Starting Pitchers over the past 10 years who were given the Opening Day Start and then collapsed for whatever reason..
The positive is that the Pittsburgh Pirates have been trending upwards the past few seasons, whether the media and fans want to admit it. The collapses have sucked, but the Pirates played well over their head in 2011 and 2012 to get into 1st place by Mid Season. The end Result since 2010, have been a 15 and then 7 Win improvement. there's enough optimism and belief in the air that this upward trend continues and that the Pittsburgh Pirates win more in 2013 than in 2012. For that to happen, more good luck has to get injected into the team and A.J. Burnett could benefit from it, rather than join a list of uninspiring Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day Starting Pitchers
