(Marquette Law School)
Democrat Kamala Harris has been in the presidential race for just more than a month, but that has not kept her from taking a 7-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, according to the most recent polling data. Newsweek summarizes the numbers under the headline "Kamala Harris Takes 7-Point Lead Over Donald Trump in New National Poll, Reporter Amanda Tannen writes:
A newly released national poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by a 7-point margin.
Harris, who accepted the Democratic Party's nomination Thursday night at the Democratic National Convention (DNC), has been in the presidential race for just over a month following President Joe Biden's exit on July 21.
Over the past few weeks, a majority of national aggregate polls have found an extremely tight race between Harris and Trump, the GOP nominee. However, most national aggregates show Harris in the lead nationally, though the two are deadlocked in battleground states that are often most indicative of the path to the White House.
On Friday, Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) and Braun Research released a new poll of 801 registered voters conducted between August 17 and 20, finding that 50 percent of voters support a Harris presidency while 43 percent support Trump. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Broken down by party, 95 percent of surveyed Democrats, 38 percent of independents, and 2 percent of Republicans back Harris. A third of independents, 33 percent, back Trump, while 95 percent of Republicans and 3 percent of Democrats support him.
The poll was conducted while independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was still in the race. Kennedy Jr. officially dropped out on Friday and endorsed Trump. National aggregate polls found Kennedy Jr. drawing about 5 percent of the vote, a figure that could influence the outcome of the election given the small margin between Trump and Harris.
Contrary to the FDU poll's findings, a Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points, 49 to 46 percent. The survey of 1,893 likely voters was conducted on August 15 and between August 18 and 21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Aggregate polls can produce a variety of results, but most show Harris maintaining a lead in a race that has been tight for several weeks now. Tannen writes:
Most national aggregate polls place Harris at the top of the race, with RealClearPolitics showing Harris up by 1.5 percentage points, 48.4 percent to Trump's 46.9 percent, and The New York Times aggregate showing Harris with a 2-percentage point lead, 49 to 47 percent.
Other aggregates show larger margins, such as FiveThirtyEight, which finds Harris up by 3.6 percentage points on Saturday, 47.2 to 43.6 percent. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin also shows Harris leading, putting her at 48 percent and Trump at 43.7 percent.
Aggregate polls are consistently updated as new polling data is added, shifting the averages in real time. National aggregate polls serve as a "temperature check" and can capture popular vote support, but they don't necessarily translate to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to clinch the White House. Here is a summary of data from a Marquette University Law School poll.
