Is Trading up in Draft Worth Risk?

Is trading up in draft worth risk?
By John Clayton | ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10...aft-worth-risk

History suggests teams might be better off staying where they are this year
The Atlanta Falcons would like to trade up to acquire Jadeveon Clowney. Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr said Friday four or five teams have told him they would like to trade into the 20s of the first round to draft him.
If the price isn't too expensive, the Detroit Lions would like to move up a few spots to draft wide receiver Mike Evans. Teams in need of quarterbacks might have to move spots to get the quarterback of their choice. The San Francisco 49ers might package some of their draft choices to move up to take a wide receiver.
Despite those possibilities, I don't expect a surge in trades Thursday, Friday and Saturday, because of the quality and depth of this draft. Trading up in a draft this rich costs too much if teams are giving up second-, third- and fourth-round choices, because players picked at those spots could be potential starters.
From 2004 through last year, there was an average of 26.8 draft day trades. The 2010 draft had the most during that time with 33. The 2005 draft had the fewest with 20. Because this year's draft is so rich, I think the trade number might be around the 22 that were brokered in 2011.
The 2011 draft is the perfect one to compare this year's to, because it was a good one (2004 and 2007 were also among some of the best recent ones). Twelve of the top 16 choices from 2011 have been to the Pro Bowl. While Johnny Manziel might not be Cam Newton, Manziel is under consideration for the first pick. Like in 2011, the next group of this year's quarterbacks have holes and aren't sure things.
Trading up to select Blaine Gabbert in 2011 didn't work out too well for the Jaguars.
There were only four first-round trades in 2011. The Jacksonville Jaguars suffered the most. They gave up a second-rounder to move up six spots to acquire Blaine Gabbert, who washed out as a starter and was dumped in a trade to the 49ers this offseason. Missing out on two high draft choices in the rich 2011 draft set back a franchise that heading into last year had one of the thinnest rosters in terms of talent.
The Kansas City Chiefs moved up six spots in the first round to select wide receiver Jon Baldwin in 2011. That didn't work out for the Chiefs, and they ended up dumping him to San Francisco last year for equally disappointing wide receiver A.J. Jenkins.
Toward the bottom of the first round in 2011, the New Orleans Saints gave away a 2012 first-rounder to move up for running back Mark Ingram. The Saints recently decided not to pick up Ingram's fifth-year option.
The most interesting trade that year was Atlanta's move to get Julio Jones, who is a stud receiver, one of the five or six best in the league. Still, the cost ate away at the team's depth. The Falcons gave Cleveland second- and fourth-round picks in 2011 along with a first-rounder and fourth-rounder in 2012 to move up 21 spots in the first round and take Jones.
As great as the acquisition of Jones was for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense, the loss of the other picks weakened the team's depth and could have assisted in the Falcons' crash landing last year. Other than Jones, Atlanta didn't get any consistent starters out of the 2011 and 2012 drafts. Offensive linemen Peter Konz and Lamar Holmes have started, but the team made a commitment to get a bigger, better line this offseason. Jonathan Massaquoi could end up being a starting linebacker this year, but the only big gain from those two drafts was Jones.
It will be interesting to see whether the Falcons make a similar deal in this rich draft to get Clowney.