As a follow up to last month’s post “Global Investment in Renewables Hits All-Time High in 2011” comes the International Energy Agency’s projections for renewable energy over the next five years. According to the press release, “global power generation from hydropower, solar, wind, and other renewable sources is projected to increase by more than 40%” which would bring the total power generation to nearly 6,400 terawatt hours (TWh). For the all important point of reference, this total represents about 1.5 times the United States’ electricity production.
The IEA’s study, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, represents the first of its kind. Traditionally the IEA produced reports for longer time horizons, but the role of renewable energy has led to a need for more frequent updates. China accounts for nearly 40% of anticipated growth in generation. The projection calls for 1,840 additional TWh over the next five years. This represents a 60% in the 1,160 TWh increase from 2005 to 2011. Interesting trends emerging from the report include the “shift from the OECD to new markets, with non-OECD countries accounting for two-thirds of this growth. . . . Significant deployment is also expected in the United States, India, Germany and Brazil, among others.”
On a related note, the following sources of renewable energy were considered for the report: hydropower, bioenergy for power, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal, and ocean power.
Other key findings of the report include:
- Hydropower continues to account for the majority of renewable generation and it registers the largest absolute growth (+730 TWh) of any single renewable technology over 2011-17, largely driven by non-OECD countries.
- Non-hydropower renewable technologies continue to scale up quickly. Between 2011 and 2017, generation from these technologies increases by over 1,100 TWh, with growth equally split between OECD and non-OECD countries.
- Onshore wind, bioenergy and solar PV see the largest increases, respectively, in generation after hydropower. Offshore wind and CSP grow quickly from low bases. Geothermal continues to develop in areas with good resources. Ocean technologies take important steps towards commercialization.
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