Nate Silver (Getty)
Vice President Kamala Harris is in position to win all seven crucial swing states over Donald Trump, according to a report at the New York Sun, citing one of the nation's most prominent pollsters. Under the headline "Vice President Kamala Harris Poised for Swing-State Sweep in Nate Silver’s Latest Forecast; Separate Projection from the FiveThirtyEight founder also shows the Democratic candidate leading nationally by 3.3 percent," the Sun's Perry Chiaramonte writes:
The latest projections from a leading polling analyst show Vice President Harris in a consistent scenario where she wins all seven of the crucial swing states in November’s election.
Nate Silver, the founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said in a presidential model he released on his Substack over the weekend, which shows that the Democratic presidential nominee has the most frequent combination involving a sweep of all seven battleground states.
Mr. Silver, who is no longer affiliated with FiveThirtyEight, said his new projection model shows all seven swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada — polling within two percentage points. The most common outcome throughout 70,000 simulations was Ms. Harris winning in all the aforementioned states, adding that she came out on top in 15,273 projections.
President Trump had the second most likely scenario, winning all swing states in 13,912 simulations.
“[T]here is roughly a 40 percent likelihood that either candidate could sweep all swing states in this election cycle,” Mr. Silver said in his Substack post.
The encouraging news for Harris did not end with Silver's analysis of swing states. It carried over to projections in other states, Chiaramonte writes:
President Trump had the second most likely scenario, winning all swing states in 13,912 simulations.
“[T]here is roughly a 40 percent likelihood that either candidate could sweep all swing states in this election cycle,” Mr. Silver said in his Substack post.
According to Mr. Silver’s presidential model, Ms. Harris is currently leading over Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while he is ahead in the states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Mr. Silver’s projections show that the race is still close. Ms. Harris has a 57.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump has a 42.5 percent chance.
In terms of the national popular vote, Mr. Silver shows the vice president ahead by 3.3 points, or 49.3 percent, versus Trump, who is at an even 46 percent.
Mr. Silver’s projections also point out that the vice president has a nearly 25 percent chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
