GDPhursday – Will the Data Match the Best 100 Days Since the Great Depression?

Franklin D. Roosevelt.

That's the last President to have a 10% stock market gain in his first 100 days in office.  The index is on course for its strongest performance since the start of Roosevelt’s first term in 1933, when it surged 80% after a spectacular crash in the Great Depression, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis. By comparison, the S&P 500 rose 5.3% in the first 100 days of President Trump’s only term in early 2017 and on average has gained 3.2% over that period in Presidential terms since Herbert Hoover’s in 1929.

It's no big surprise that bountiful government spending, increasing Covid-19 vaccinations, growing faith in the economic reopening and continued support from the Federal Reserve have powered the latest leg up in the stock market.  The U.S. has made strides in its vaccination campaign, with the Biden administration reaching its goal of giving 200 million doses within the president’s first 100 days. Vaccines appear to be starting to slow the spread of new Covid-19 infections in the U.S., bolstering expectations that the economy can move beyond the restrictions that have slowed activity during the pandemic.

Consumer confidence in the U.S., meanwhile, has risen for four consecutive months, but still well below the pre-pandemic levels. Recent readings may have been boosted by the distribution of checks to households, following Biden’s signing in March of a $1.9Tn relief bill that provided for direct payments to many Americans.  In late March, Biden unveiled a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan that could benefit businesses ranging from Trucking Companies to Semiconductor Manufacturers to Electric-Vehicle and Battery Makers.  Last night, as expected, the President promoted a $1.8 trillion proposal for new spending on Child Care, Education and Paid Leave – a plan he would largely pay for by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans (over $400,000 in income).

Notice that Consumer Confidence, as well as the market, is all about expectations – rather than the ACTUAL present situation.  People extrapolate things are getting better and therefore earnings will get better and stocks will be worth more money but the reality of an inflationary economy with stagnant wages or, even worse, stagnant growth can quickly turn into a major economic problem.  

In the…
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