Right on our target from yesterday's post and last week's predictions and, of course, 880 has been right on our Big Chart, plain as day for years – so don't act all surprised when we hit it (see also, Dave Fry's chart). Now our attention turn to the NYSE, which needs to confirm the move in larger caps by hitting 8,800 (now 8,713) and the Nasdaq needs to hit 3,150 (now 3,131) and the Dow needs to cross 13,600 (now 13,471) or this little move up in the Russell may be short-lived indeed.
Ah, but for the Nasdaq to cross over 3,150, it's going to need AAPL to move up – or at least stop dragging it down. AAPL is down 20% from $660 since October (3.5 months) and that's cost the Nasdaq 4% but the Nasdaq is flat at 3,100 and now over that line a bit. Add 4% to 3,100 and we're at 3,224 and almost at our 10% line at 3,300 so all it's going to take is an AAPL recovery and the Nasdaq is off to the races.
Unfortunately, I had to warn our Members against betting on an APPL recovery coming soon (we expect it eventually), saying:
I don't think AAPL will gap up on China as it's kind of expected, unless there is a special deal, like I outlined yesterday. I think it's dangerous to fantasize about a sudden turn up in AAPL – even when they were $85 and I was screaming for people to buy them, it took 7 months (October '08 – April '09) for them to get back over $100 – and that was down from $200 – more than 50%, so it's not like nobody had seen better value in AAPL earlier – they had been over $150 for about a year and then spent 7 months at a 50%+ discount. Now they fell from $600 (I wouldn't count the brief spike to $700) to $500 for about 3 months – maybe they still go to $400 and maybe it lasts another 6 months – you shouldn't care, you should be thrilled to OWN AAPL at that price. But if you keep betting for a short-term pop, you can go broke while you wait.
That was in the context of discussing our "One Trade" on AAPL and…
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