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Friday’s Fabulous Rally Finish – All Downhill From Here?

Posted on the 20 July 2012 by Phil's Stock World @philstockworld

Let it not be said you did not have an opportunity to fill out those short positions (or cash in the longs) – we've been warning you all week so, when they say "Who could have seen this coming?" – you can say "Phil did."  QE where, I say as we are now supposed to wait for Jackson Hole, in August, for the Fed to act?  Come on – how many times are we going to fall for this BS?    

As noted here in David Fry's SPY chart – we're rallying on Tech, which is beating incredibly low expectations, and Energy, where the rising costs are back to hurting Global Consumers.  Ag stocks are also on fire and now we have a rice shortage to add to the corn shortage as India has it's weakest monsoon season since 2009 – so now we can add mass starvation to our list of macro concerns.  

This is how we built our rally in 2007 and that did not end very well.  As I said yesterday – it's deja vu all over again as we had a pointless, stupid, misguided rally last July and then we fell off a cliff – and that was before we even had a fiscal cliff to fall off of!  

As promised in yesterday's post, we initiated our Long Put List and it looks like we'll have our first triple already as our CMG Sept $350 puts were just $5 when we sent the Alert out to our Members at 10:18 yesterday morning and CMG disappointed on earnings last night and plunged below $350 in early trading.  Our other favorites were AMZN, MA, DIA, SPY and V and AMZN gave us very cheap entries as they topped out at $228, while V & MA trended down for us all day so we'll see if SPY can hold that magical 1,375 line (the early July high) and if the Dow can hold 12,950 or if we're just double-topping here ahead of the big drop.  

Dan Greenhaus: BTIG, Jim O'Neill: Goldman Sachs, Tom Porcelli: RBC
While the charts have made some very constructive technical progress this week, the low volumes make the moves extremely suspect.  Note on the SPY chart that we had a run-up on declining volume in April (also earnings) as well – that did not lead to a pleasant May, did it?  More to the point,



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