Evening traders/investors,
Apologies for the inactivity during the last few months. It seems to me that I trade less, and have less to say as a blogger too - probably all due to the more patient and relaxed trend-following approach I have been making a transition to over the last year or so. Belated Christmas and New Year greetings to all of you. As market participants, it is best to wish one another a better year ahead! Every year the word "volatile" is used to sum up the markets but it is inevitable that markets will fluctuate and throw up some surprises somewhere inside a whole calendar year. 2014, however, was not so exciting as compared to other years. The local bourse certainly did not give me that many trend opportunities; so much so that I had to look at some other equity markets for the first time. The USD's languid state in the first two-thirds of the year did not present any concrete trend set-ups too. There were a few set-ups in certain markets, and those set-ups are still valid over the turn of the year.
The first flavour I have for the new year is the possible divergence between Europe and US. I first discussed this view in this post - http://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2014/11/05/end-of-europes-uptrend-while-america-advances/ . It seemed difficult to envision an inversely proportional divergence between those two markets; so I concluded that it probably means general sideways movement in Europe while American equities continued the charge north. For now, the picture is the same to me: nothing has changed in the broad sense for those two markets.
The local bourse- the STI, still does not look that bullish to me even with a decent 6% showing last year. I think this is because I do not see that many bullish set-ups in the constituent counters. The banks did well for the STI last year, and they look set to hold the gains this year, though this will require analysis in the months ahead. SIA also surged suddenly late last year so I will see what is up with the national carrier. The "Jardines" jumped a little in the second half of last year but do not look to improve much from here on. The "agris" are tanking quite badly, and as a trend-follower, I will look for further downside. (Exclude Olam from this list; Olam is an example of what happens when some people interfere. Of course, I do not know what goes on behind their curtains and that of other places, but the way I see it, Olam was saved from utter embarrassment "unnaturally".)
Funnily, most if not all of the counters in the STI with the word Singapore in the company name have bearish-looking charts. The general stance I am taking on the local equity market is a bearish one for the blue-chips. However, I think there may be better rish-reward opportunities outside the STI, therefore, I will look at the second- and third-tiers more closely. Judging from the last few months of last year, I do not have many interesting charts to share, hence what I mentioned in the first paragraph, "The local bourse certainly did not give me that many trend opportunities; so much so that I had to look at some other equity markets...". Oil and gas and shipping sectors are looking quite horrible, and property counters do not look promising too (I would have said outright bearish if not for the performance of one or two big players).
I will continue to watch Gold quite closely. The glittery metal seems to be on the verge of a continuation of a major downtrend. Somewhere last year, I was alerted to a break of major support. Gold managed to hold on after the slight violation of support but time will tell if gold can find favour or if investors will ditch gold for other asset classes.
