Here we go again:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about the risk of failing to stamp out high inflation than about the possibility of raising interest rates too high and pushing the economy into a recession.
“Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “The bigger mistake to make—let’s put it that way—would be to fail to restore price stability.”
That has cost the S&P 500 60 points (1.5%) since yesterday afternoon and we're now 3% away from those June 16th lows, which marked essentially no gain at all since Dec 31st, 2020 – when the S&P 500 finished at 3,756 – up from 3,733 that morning. That's 18 months of market progress erased and, if you listen to the AWFUL Consumer and Investor Sentiment readings – we may only be just getting started.
Powell is making it very clear that he does not work for Wall Street and that, of course, is scaring the crap out of Wall Street and the investing class – who love a nice round of inflation as long as they can profit from it. The fear now is that the Fed is overdoing it and rising rates will kill the consumers but that's BS as the consumers are concerned about rising PRICES, not the rates. So Powell's tact is correct if you want to actually fix the economy but investors could care less about the economy – they just want more free money – and that is something the consumers were never given access to.
RH spooked the market last night by cutting their sales guidance down 2-5% vs up 0-2% prior. Shares of RH (we are long) fell 8% after hours, down to $216 from $271 on Friday and is down from $700 in 2021, which we consider an excellent value.
“With mortgage rates double last year’s levels, luxury home sales down 18% in the first quarter, and the Federal Reserve’s
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