CPI Friday – Fun with Futures, Trouble with Omicron

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We made a nice $2,000 gain on the Natural Gas (/NG) Futures we discussed in yesterday's PSW Morning Report but then /NG came back down and we re-entered it in our Live Member Chat Room at the end of the day for another $2,000 gain already this morning.  I'm more inclined to let these run but a stop at $1,000 ($500 per contract) is wise – as this is bonus money anyway – so let's call below $3.80 a stop now.

I know this seems easy but it's supposed to be easy if you are PATIENT – it's the patience that ruins it for most people.  It's been ages since we played the Futures because we only play them when they hit major support or resistance levels and, even then, we're lucky to get it right 2 out of 3 times but, with the right money-management techniques – 2 out of 3 is all you need to make silly amounts of money.  The trick is to know when NOT to play – which is 90% of the time….

We took the money and ran on S&P 500 (/ES) shorts and Oil (/CL) shorts – as they both had excellent runs as well and it always looks obvious in retrospect – which is why so many people are fooled into following TA.  But TA only tells you about the past – it does not predict the Future.  The Future is determined by Fundamentals and changes in sentiment (how people perceive those Fundamentals) and News Flow – which is not the same as "News" but the trending changes in the News that will affect the sentiment which, in turn, causes people to view the Fundamentals in a different light from day to day.

Take Bristow Group (VTOL), who have been mostly ferrying people on and off oil platforms, mostly with helicopters, for the past 75 years – very nice and very boring.  The company has a $928M valuation and makes about $80M in a good year, which is good but not thrilling.  Last year, however, they merged with Era Group (ERA) and changed their symbol to VTOL because the company aspires to use their expertise to enter the Air Taxi space. They just annonce a partnership with…

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