Despite the fact that some politicians have tried to label climate modeling as a “quack science,” hindcasting—the method of entering historical information into a current mathematical model—has shown that climate models are fairly accurate in predicting broad climate trends over the long term. The hindcast approach has proven useful not only in validating weather models for Earth, but also for Mars.
The hindcast study performed for Earth sought to determine the accuracy of seven computer models used to compile reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Specifically, the authors were interested in measuring the models’ accuracy in predicting surface air temperature trends at different time and geological scales. In order to verify the models’ accuracy, scientists entered past climate information into the weather models, and compared its predictions with current climate conditions. It was found that while the models could not predict climates over the next 10 or 20 years, or for specific geological areas, they were accurate in predicting continental and global climate trends for time spans of more than 30 years. Looking further ahead, the models show that, without efforts to curb greenhouse gases, global temperatures could rise by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. The authors also found no meaningful difference in the predictive skills across the different models.
The science behind climate modeling has proved to be accurate on Mars as well, as described in a recent press release by the Planetary Science Institute. Though the science community obviously lacks the same long-term, detailed climate data for Mars as it has for Earth, climate models forecasted specific characteristics of glacial features on the Red Planet. The model was able to predict that “unusual climate circumstances” would produce a region of glaciers during a particular time frame and location. Defending climate science, one of the researchers said that if global climate models can predict specific features on a distant planet, “climate modeling should not be sarcastically dismissed.”
