(The caricature above of Paul Ryan is by DonkeyHotey.)House Republicans got what they wanted -- the ouster of John Boehner as Speaker. But it hasn't been the victory they had hoped for. For a few days, it looked like Kevin McCarthy (GOP Majority Leader) would slide right in to Boehner's old job -- but that was not to be. The GOP "freedom caucus", made up of about 40 teabagger Republicans, made it clear that he did not have their support -- and they had enough votes to block his election on the House floor.
That threw the speaker election into disarray. Several representatives have tossed their name into the hat, but none of them have a lot of support. Enter Paul Ryan. Ryan doesn't really want the job. He's already head of a very powerful committee, and still has presidential aspirations -- and traditionally, the Speakership has not been a job that creates presidents.
But the Republicans are now desperate. They need someone who can corral enough votes to be elected Speaker -- and it looks like Ryan is the only representative well-liked enough to do that. The GOP representatives all see him as a solid conservative (because of the austere budgets he has proposed in the past). It's looking more and more like Ryan could be the consensus candidate, if he can be talked into accepting the job -- and I believe it is now very likely that he will be the next Speaker of the House.
Will he bring peace to House Republicans (and the base party voters)? I doubt it. While he's a right-wing conservative, he still will face a Senate where Democrats can block House actions, and a president who can veto them. Is he going to be more likely to let the House Republicans shut down the government over silly issues like Planned Parenthood? I doubt it. He might throw them a bone, like Boehner did in the past, but eventually even he will have to try to govern (and that means avoiding shutdowns over right-wing issues) -- and when he does try to govern, he will become just as unpopular as Boehner was.
John Boehner was not the problem, and Paul Ryan is not the solution. The real problem is a war for the soul of the Republican Party -- in the Congress, and in the party's base. On one side are the teabaggers and evangelicals. They don't like anything a Black (or woman) president would do, and they are willing to shut down the government over social issues (issues that go against current law and public opinion). The other side is the business-oriented establishment Republicans. They see the other side as hurting the party's electoral chances, and want to stay in power to reduce taxes for the rich and corporations and reduce regulations on Wall Street.
This war is not new, and has been going on for a few years now. Ryan is not going to be able to bring peace between those GOP factions. That's nothing against him. I don't think anyone could do that at this time.
It will be interesting to see what happens, and we won't have long to wait. The debt ceiling will need to be raised in November, and a budget needs to be passed by December 11th. The teabagger element will be willing to shut down the government over those issues, while the establishment faction doesn't want that. It seems that Ryan is already between a rock and a hard place, and he doesn't even have the job yet.
