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Box Office Predictions: Four New Releases Crowd Box Office

Posted on the 16 July 2013 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

1) Turbo- 35M Weekend

Four new releases, and Turbo looks to the the strongest. With Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University still in theatres, Turbo will have a tough time launching to a really huge weekend, but it likely won’t have a problem taking the top spot. At least Ryan Reynolds will have some good news this weekend…

Animated films have done really well this year. Despicable Me 2 opened to 83M, Monsters University opened to 82M, The Croods opened to 43M, Epic opened to 33M, and Escape From Planet Earth grabbed 15M. The first two are franchises, so they already have a built in fanbase. The Croods had no competition when it opened, so Turbo looks to play a bit more like Epic.

2) The Conjuring- 28M Weekend

Strong reviews. Really strong reviews. Critics are saying this is a legit horror film, one of the scariest ever. Those reviews will cause people to show up in mass this weekend, as they haven’t gotten a good scare in a while. They were willing to head out to The Purge, which wasn’t even a true horror film. They’ll come for The Conjuring. In a less crowded weekend, I would predict a higher gross, but this weekend is going to be tough.

The Purge launched to 34M, Evil Dead hit 25M in April, Mama opened to 28M in January, this has been a good year for horror films. And The Conjuring is a well-reviewed horror film to boot.

3) Red 2- 25M Weekend

Yes, it’s a sequel. This might seem low, except you probably have forgotten that the original Red only opened to 21M, and only grossed 90M domestically. This is not a huge franchise. The first one was a crowd pleaser, and word of mouth should help the sequel to do a bit better than the original, but the marketplace is crowded. I don’t expect much more than 25M this weekend.

4) Despicable Me 2- 22M Weekend

Despicable Me is going to be hit hard by Turbo. A 50% drop is likely, as that is about what Monsters University suffered when Despicable entered the foray. Despicable Me 2 should easily pass 300M before July is over.

5) Pacific Rim- 19M Weekend

Good reviews and strong word of mouth might keep Pacific Rim in the top 5 this week, edging out the poorly reviewed Grown Ups 2. Might.

6) Grown Ups 2- 18M Weekend

Grown Ups won’t have quite the word of mouth going into week 2. Turbo should take a chunk of the family interest too.

7) RIPD- 16M Weekend

This Men In Black retread has had a hard time getting audiences excited. Tracking is low. This is going to be one of the bigger disappointments of the summer. Ryan Reynolds is also the voice of Turbo, so it won’t be all bad news for him this weekend.

8) The Heat- 8M Weekend

The Heat is going to drop this weekend, a bit more than usual, simply because four new films need screens. The Heat will start losing extra screens in theatres, which will affect its ability to gross. The Heat is looking to probably finish with around 140M.

9) Monsters University- 6M Weekend

The Disney sequel should pass Lone Ranger this weekend. Lone Ranger dropped 60% in week 2, which is not exactly a strong indicator of doing well in week three. Monsters University might just fall short of a 270M domestic haul.

10) The Lone Ranger and World War Z- 5M Weekend

For the final spot in the top 10, it will either be Lone Ranger or World War Z, at about 5M. Lone Ranger is past its two week commitment, so theatres can start dropping prints of the film now. World War Z is still pushing itself as the sleeper hit of the summer. Either film could take this spot. Lone Ranger is looking to fall short of 100M domestic, while World War Z is headed to fall a couple million shy of 200M.

Also: Girl Most Likely

Kristin Wiig’s Sundance hit opens this weekend. Reviews aren’t great. With about 350 screens, I’m predicting an opening of around 1M. It will likely still be behind returning films like The Way Way Back, White House Down, and Man Of Steel, so 15th might be the highest it could hope for.

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