Blog : Spring Training Preview: Part II - The Starting Pitchers

After looking over a fairly uninspiring group of pitchers invited to camp on the NRI side (and completely ignoring the group of hitters they've brought in) it's time to take a look at the guys who might actually make the team. The pitching side of the equation has actually developed into a very intriguing group. There's potential for a very legitimate competitive staff, and also that total bomb potential. It will be interesting to watch either way.
Guaranteed spots:
AJ Burnett (R) - After flaming out somewhat spectacularly in New York and a comically Pirates-like start to his career in Pittsburgh where he missed all of spring and the start of the regular season after bunting a ball off his face, Burnett really turned his career around as he not only stepped up as the staff leader on the field, but also the clubhouse leader off of it. There seemed to be a legitimate excitement among the other players every time he was around. Burnett looks to build off a year where he shrugged off the early injury and turned in over 200 innings anyway to go along with a staff leading 180 strikeouts. Barring injury, Burnett should make up for missing the start last year by taking the ball opening day in front of a packed house at PNC Park. Questions do remain, though, about whether he can repeat last year's success as he enters his age 36 season. He is only one year removed from two straight years with a 5+ ERA.
Wandy Rodriguez (L) - It seemed that many fans weren't huge fans of Rodriguez's performance following his deadline acquisition last year. Rodriguez got off to a shaky start in a Pirates uniform, but actually turned it around fairly quickly and was the Pirates most consistent starter by the end of the season. The artist formerly known as Eny Cabreja actually lead the NL in starts last year with 33 combined between the Astros and Pirates (plus a relief appearance in the 19 inning game part 2) and piled up 205 innings. Rodriguez finished the season with a solid 3.76 ERA, but showed some signs of fading in 2012 as he posted his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year in 2005. He did pair that with a career low walk rate, though. If he can just retain his 2012 form Rodriguez and Burnett could combine to give the Pirates a R-L combo that puts up 400+ solid innings at the combined price you'd expect for one good starter. There is always that chance he continues to fade at 34, though.
James McDonald (R) - McDonald had a spectacular first half in 2012 that led many to believe he was snubbed for the all star team. Then the second half happened. McDonald actually ended 2012 with exactly 171 IP and a 4.21 ERA, the same numbers he posted in 2011. McDonald is in an odd spot. He's the rare player who's 28 years old and you have no idea what kind of pitcher he really is. The tantalizing talent is still there, and it forces you to open the season with him in the rotation. But was his confidence shattered by a disastrous second half? Does McDonald rebound to his first half form and become a top of the line starter? Does he continue his downward spiral and fall out of the rotation completely? Or does he match his past two years of mediocre overall performance? All seem equally likely.
Likely Spots:
Jeff Karstens (R) - The unfortunately faced Karstens was non-tendered by the Pirates after two decent seasons when he could manage to actually stay on the mound leading to outrage from all directions. In the end Karstens ended up back in Pittsburgh at a reduced salary (which Dejan Kovacevic emphatically declared would NOT happen). Some were confused, but it's easy to see why. Karstens just isn't a guy who a team is going to pay big money or offer a multi-year deal at this point. He has yet to prove he can really hold up as a starter (one year in his career where he's topped 125 innings), and many still aren't convinced that he can continue to be successful with his all-strikes, no stuff approach. If Karstens can match his performance form 2011 and the parts of 2012 when he was able to stay in the rotation then he's a very decent back end option. If he can't stay on the mound or reverts to pre-2011 form then...he's what you expect from a $2.5 million starter.
The Injured:
Francisco Liriano (L) - Liriano turned in 121 spectacular innings as a rookie in 2006, missed all of the following year with Tommy John surgery, and has been wildly inconsistent ever since. He turned in 76 solid innings in his bounceback year, had a disastrous 2009, a 2010 that was spectacular in terms of peripherals but just decent in terms of ERA, and then two years with a 5+ ERA. Liriano will still turn heads with a good fastball and spectacular slider from the left side, but there are questions about whether he'll ever throw a strike again (5 BB/9 each of the last 2 years). As a left handed flyball pitcher in PNC Park Liriano has the potential to put up fantastic numbers if he can keep the ball in the zone. It's a huge if though. Liriano had originally agreed to a 2 year $12.75 million deal with the Pirates, but broke his right arm in a bathroom fall (what?) and ended up with only $1 million guaranteed and a vesting option that could turn it back into a 2 year $12.75 million deal again. It's unclear how serious the injury is and when Liriano is expected to be ready.
Charlie Morton (R) - Morton showed flashes of brilliance in 2009 before a completely awful 2010 where he couldn't stay in the majors. He completely remade his delivery before the 2011 season and turned in a year as about a league average starter using a sinker to induce an extreme amount of grounders. Questions lingered about whether he could learn to control it better, start striking out a few hitters, and develop a weapon to keep lefties from teeing off. None of these questions were answered in 2012 as he never looked right through 9 starts and eventually learned he needed Tommy John surgery. Morton should be back before the mid-point of the season with all of those questions still lingering.
The Kids:
Jeff Locke (L) - Locke has been on the prospect radar for years. The Pirates picked him up as the highest regarded player in the Nate McLouth deal back in 2009, and he climbed the ladder up to the majors back in 2011. Locke had a great year at AAA Indy and was rewarded with 6 starts towards the end of the year. He didn't have much success, but did strike out 34 over 34.1 innings. Locke should get a long look with a spot likely open in the back of the rotation.
Kyle McPherson (R) - McPherson was taken in the 14th round back in 2007 and had decent success in the low minors, but didn't really breakout as a prospect until 2011 as he did great things while never walking anybody between Bradenton and Altoona. An injury delayed his start to 2012, but he managed 12 decent minor league starts before getting the call for his MLB debut. He didn't get a ton of action with the big club, but showed decent stuff, particularly in relief spots.
The Long Shots:
Gerrit Cole (R) - Maybe the best stuff in baseball, but he still has some things to figure out at AAA. He could put on a show in the spring, but it's extremely unlikely he makes the club before June.
Justin Wilson (L) - Wilson has been up and down as a starter throughout his career. The question has always been whether he can harness his control enough to do it, and the answer has usually been no. Wilson seems better suited for a relief role where he can just let his crazy stuff fly. There's always that outside chance he finds it, though.
Phil Irwin (R) - The new addition to the 40 man has put up good numbers at every level including 3 late starts at AAA. Irwin doesn't have impressive stuff and seems to be a pure strike-thrower. Maybe a Karstens-type in the future. I don't think they'd prefer that he get a good long run at AAA first, though.
Andy Oliver (L) - The latest victim of the Tigers pitching development system (see also: Andrew Miller, Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry, Jacob Turner, Casey Crosby?), Oliver was drafted in 2009, then made his MLB debut about 9 months after signing. The problem was he never really learned to pitch as a professional, and has struggled mightily with his control ever since. There's still a ton of talent, but it might be too late to remake him at this point.
Jeanmar Gomez (R) - Sinkerballer acquired from the Indians this offseason. He has 200+ big league innings under his belt, but hasn't shown much of anything. He really never did much that was particularly impressive in the minors either. If he's in the rotation it's because everyone else bombed.
Chris Leroux (R) - The Pirates claimed Leroux from the Marlins a few years back and he actually looked like a pretty decent reliever at the end of 2011. He decided he wanted to take another shot as a starter, but struggled with injuries throughout 2012. He did show some decent signs at AAA, but it's extremely unlikely he ever has a career as a major league starter. It would be much better for him if he'd stick to the bullpen.
Not Yet:
Jameson Taillon (R) - Made it up to AA at the end of the year, but still a year plus from the bigs. Will miss a good part of the spring with the World Baseball Classic where he'll join Team Canada
Stolmy Pimentel (R) - Picked up from the Red Sox in the Hanrahan trade, Pimentel was a once-hot prospect, but seems to have stagnated at the AA level. There's still some hope he breaks through, but it may be wise to move him to the bullpen and let him unload out there.
The Lottery Ticket:
Jonathan Sanchez (L) - Sanchez was only given a minor league deal and a camp invite because of the potential for him to blow up and become a legitimate major leaguer again. His 2012 was a nightmare. Can he find his velocity and his control again? Probably not, but if he does...
Up next: the remade bullpen