As History Would Have It
This is the Penguins’ 7th straight appearance into the post-season, and every year it always feels like “The Year”. Then again, maybe that is my Pittsburgh bias, or maybe it’s because we are always good, with a solid core and great roles players. But I digress. This year, I think, out of any of the other playoff years, one could legitimately argue and label this year as “The Year”. There is a lot of pressure riding on the Penguins, and it isn’t just the local pressure this time around. Nationally speaking the Penguins are the “odd-on favorites” to win the Eastern Conference and represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. Many national pundits also have the Penguins as the favorite to lift Lord Stanley's Cup. But with great hype, comes great responsibility. Are the Penguins up to the task? Will they falter? Will they succeed? Only time will tell what will happen, but here are a few observations/thoughts/fears/joys/etc. that I am feeling heading into Game 1 against the New York Islanders.
The Penguins by virtue of their magnificent 17 game win streak, all but sealed up the #1 Seed back at the beginning of April, but it wasn’t confirmed until their victory over the Boston Bruins on 20 April, about a week and a half ago. It was also uncertain who the Penguins would play; that didn’t come until the Senators defeated the Bruins on the final game of the year. That gave the Penguins the privilege of playing the New York Islanders.
Battlefield Ice: All The Other Pesky Opponents
Before I jump into the Penguins/Islanders series, I will give my thoughts (briefly) on the other Eastern Conference Series, and what the ultimate result(s) will be. As Confucius said, "Know thy enemy, know thy self".
The #2 Seed Montreal Canadiens play host to the #7 Ottawa Senators. I think that this series will go the distance. Ottawa has been resurgent with the return of Erik Karlson and they are getting healthy headed into the playoffs. Conversely, the Canadeins have been mediocre down the stretch, finishing the final 10 games 4-6-0 and were most graciously handed the Northeast Division by the Boston Bruins. These two teams will, in my opinion, beat each other up, ultimately resulting with the Habs taking the series in 7.
The #3 Seed Washington Capitals play host to the #6 New York
The #4 Boston Bruins play host to the #5 Toronto Maple Leafs. This series is going to be interesting. If you are expecting up and down action, I don’t foresee it here. But that’s just me. If the Canadiens are “limping” into the playoffs, than the Bruins are dragging their bloddy stumps into the post-season. The Bruins were a horrific 3-5-2 in their final 10 games. Had they played even .500 hockey they would have been the #2 seed. Toronto on the other hand, has quietly maintained themselves amid the playoff turmoil; going 5-4-1 in their final 10 games and as the #5 seed, sit perched to knock-off the Bruins. This will be a tough series, however, I see the Bruins eeking this series out in 6.
In The Crosshairs
This leaves us with the #1 Seed Pittsburgh Penguins facing the #8 New York Islanders. So much can be said of this series. The Penguins are 0-3 against the Isles lifetime in the playoffs, and 2 of those 3 series were absolute “heartbreak” losses. The most recent was of course the 1993 loss, with arguably the “Best Penguins Team” ever assembled. If you don’t believe me, check out the link is here and see who was on that team. Sort by Goals and be amazed at what you see (just look at the Top 8 players)...truly amazing. I am still in awe at how the lost, but I digress again. The other series, was in 1975 when the Penguins held a 3-0 series lead, only to loose the series in 7 games.
How do I see this series unfolding? There is still some question as to whether or not Sidney Crosby will be ready for Game 1 on Wednesday night. Do I think it makes a difference in the outcome of the game or even this particular series? Simply put, no I don’t. There is more than enough offensive prowess to overcome the loss of Crosby. Between Malkin, Neal, Kunitz, Iginla…etc. I don’t see offense being the problem. Furthermore, the new acquisitions have made up for the loss of Crosby’s offensive production. Speaking of which...
As far as chemistry goes, I think that ship has been set to sea. Morrow, Iginla and Jokkinen have more than solidified themselves into their roles on this team. They have embraced the Penguins’ system and have adapted their game to accommodate the Penguins’ style of play. This unselfishness, I think, is the reason why they fit in so well and were able to make an impact both immediately and long-term. In my opinion, the losses to Crosby, Malkin, and Neal, were actually a “Blessing in Disguise”. This gave our new acquisitions time to learn the system without the crutch of the star power. And the best proof that our acquisitions fit in is that the Penguins have kept winning. Now that we have our stars back…at least 2 out of 3 of them, you can see that the offensive chemistry hasn’t been hindered at all. In fact, you saw how dominant the old Malkin-Kunitz-Neal line was against the Hurricanes.
The Achilles Heel of the Penguins is their defense. That will be the story, not only in this series, but any other series the Penguins find themselves in. And before I go any further, by defense that includes goaltending, although one could argue that as a separate area, but I don’t. Marc-Andre Fluery and Thomas Vokoun have every bit of impact on the defensive performance and results as do the defensmen themselves. Soft, early goals and the inability to thwart the opponent’s crease presence have crushed the Penguins in recent playoff series. Along with that comes the Penalty Kill. It can be argued, and I would agree, that your best and most important player on the Penalty Kill is your goaltender. You can plug the gaps, you can clear the crease, you can even clear the puck out of the zone a few times, but if your goalie can’t stop the puck, you WILL give up goals, lots and lots of them. With as abysmal a penalty kill as the Penguins had last year versus Philadelphia, 47.8% to be exact, the goaltending shouldered just as much of the blame as did the defense/penalty killers. The big questions surrounding the defense are: Will the defense play like they did during that 17 game win streak, where they allowed less than 1 goal a game and pitched 3-4 shutouts? Or will they revert to old lazy habits, mental lapses, no net presence, of which we saw in several games down the stretch? Will the PK unit (to include the goaltender) average better than a 47.8% rate like last year? Will the acquisitions of Murray and Eaton bolster the defense, or keep it at status quo? “Salerno’s 3 Keys To Defensive Victory”, they are this:
- No Soft Goals. No Early Goals. (Goalie specific objective)
- Don’t Take Penalties, and if you do; Kill Them…ALL of them
- Patience, Patience, Patience. One shot, One shift, One period, One game
Now to the fun part…oh wait, I haven’t given you my prediction. My bad. In the end I see the Penguins handling the Isles. I see the Penguins winning this series in 5 games. I can see the Isles taking one of their home games, but the Penguins will be too much for the young, inexperienced Islanders to handle. To draw a comparison, this year’s Islanders team reminds me of the 2006-07 Penguins that got beat by the Savvy Veteran Ottawa Senators. It was the 1st Playoff trip for Crosby & Co. and the playoffs were just too big a stage for them, and in spite of their valiant regular season numbers and performance, they simply couldn't hang, they caved to the pressure. I see the same happening for Tavares & Co. Penguins take the series in 5.
Okay, so now the fun begins. What I mean is, how does Dan Bylsma and management assemble their lines? I know that the status of Sidney Crosby's return is uncertain, however, I am going to assume that he WILL be in the lineup, it makes this game more fun. So here it goes.
- Offense
- Crosby-Kunitz-Duper
- Malkin-Neal-Iginla
- Jokkinen-Morrow-Cooke
- Sutter-Adams-(insert revolving door player here)
- Glass, Vitale, Kennedy, Bennett, Jeffery
- Defense
- Orpik, Letang
- Martin, Eaton
- Murray, Niskanen
- (Reserve: Engelland/Despres)
- Power Play
- Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang, Kunitz
- Jokkinen, Morrow, Iginla, Martin, Duper
- Penalty Kill
- Hard to say based on WHO is actually in the box
- ???Adams, Murray, Orpik, Cooke, Glass, Martin???
For those who are fans of continuity (much like myself :) ), you can see I left the “1st Line” in tact. However, there are a couple of caveats to this lineup. I will concede that Kunitz and Iginla are essentially interchangeable as Kunitz has shown he can play with either Malkin or Crosby; and Iginla is a savvy vet who can play with anyone at anytime. Also, does Sutter still center the “3rd Line” or does he get pushed to the "4th Line” in favor of Jokkinen? Do the Penguins man a “Stacked” PP Line? Or do they break it into two “Really Good” PP Lines? (This was actually a point of discussion/contention back when the Penguins went into the Playoffs in 2007-08 with Hossa). Finally, there is much to be said of the “revolving door” scenario of the "4th line". I think that this is where Bylsma will “earn his paycheck”. I see him manning the "4th Line" tactically. What I mean by this is, based off of the opponent’s style/philosophy/gameplan, Bylsma will react to that and counter it with his “4th Line” manning. If they want to play a tighter/physical game, he may actually use a guy like Glass. If they want a more open style, maybe he goes with Kennedy or Bennett. These are just some thoughts/considerations with respect to the line matchups that have been swarming through my mind as I anticipate Game 1.
I know I threw a lot out there, and I imagine that there is so much more to be said that I didn’t even cover, or topics that maybe need further discussion. But that is what the “Reply” button is for, and that is also what the GDT (Game Day Thread) is for. So stop on by
