Blog : ECF Preview: A Purely Statistic Breakdown of the Penguins Vs. Bruins

Now that we know that the Penguins will be playing the Boston Bruins in the ECF Round, let's take a look at how the Penguins match up against the Bruins from a statistical standpoint. Before I delve into inserting tables, charts, and whatnot, I must state a big caveat. These numbers are for educational purposes only. That is to say, I am not making any two-ways about these numbers. Extract from them what you want, or maybe even nothing at all. I will provide some commentary on some of the statistics and which ones stand out to me. I also apologize if any of the images are not there or if the overall formatting goes to hell. So yeah, many apologies in advance. The breakdown of the statistics will go like this. First will be the stats of the Penguins' 3 Head-to-Head Regular Season matchups against the Bruins, with some comments about my takeaways from the Regular Season matchups. Next, I will post each teams' Overall Playoff Statistics, again with some comments/takeaways. After that, I will breakdown the Goaltending Stats of each team thus far through the playoffs. This will include a comparison, though largely skewed, of the breakdown between Vokoun and MAF. Finally I will each teams' breakdown of hits/faceoffs/etc data thus far through the playoffs. I do not know how to attach my "source" document Excel file w/o it showing up here, so if there is anyone suicidal enough to WANT it, 'holla and I will send it to you. Speaking of my "source" document, the hardest part about this whole production wasn't crunching the numbers, that's what MS Excel is for! :D The hardest part was organizing everything to make the Excel product ACTUALLY make sense. And instead of trying to Copy/Paste the tables and/or re-create them in the WYSIWYG editor, I have attached separate cropped images of each section of my "source" document. This should make things MUCH easier to digest. Anyways, without any further ado:
The Regular Season Stats

Reg Season Stats.jpg
Notes about each Regular Season Matchup:
Game 1: Boston was up 2-0 for most of the game. Pens scored 3 goals in final 6:18 to win. Sutter scored the final two goals 3:24 apart. The Penguins only allowed a total of 16SOG. It was largely noted in the GDT that this was THE GAME that the Penguin's D realized they could bow up and win a close hard fought defensive game. Finally, once the Pens cracked Khudobin, he gave up 3 goals on the Pens' final 3 Shots.
Game 2: The Penguins played and won this game w/o the services of both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Also to note, this was prior to the Penguins trade deadline acquisitions, so there was no Iggy, Morrow, Jussi, or Crankshaft.
Game 3: The Penguins won this game w/o Sid (broken jaw), Malkin (shoulder), Neal (concussion), Martin (wrist surgery). The Penguins were dominated on faceoffs. Their best centerman was Sutter at 50% going 10-20. Next best was Jokkinen at 39.1% going 9-23.
Overall: In 3 games, the Penguins won by 1 goal. Not that much difference there. This follows the similar pattern we saw with how the Penguins fared against Ottawa. Also, special teams in the Regular Season matchups were pretty much a non-factor until the third game, where 2 of the 3 Penguins' goals came off the PP. The percentages don't speak to how well each team's PK was. The Pens were 6-for-8 and the Bruins were 9-for-11. Again, very similar to the Ottawa matchup. The biggest discrepancy was Faceoff %. Boston won 56% and the Penguins only 44%. Finally, as noted above, 2 of the 3 games the Penguins played against Boston were w/o their full complement of players, and they still won. Interesting to see how each team matches up, now that the Penguins are "fully healthy".
Overall Post Season Statistics

Overall Post Season Stats.jpg
There are quite a few items to note here. As far as Save%, GAA goes, both teams are nearly identical at about .925 Sv% and 2.4 Goals Allowed/Game. Boston has been slightly more "physical" but as I mentioned in the Ottawa preview, "Hits" are a very subjective stat. Faceoffs (as with the regular season), are really the biggest difference. The Penguins are right at 50%, where the Bruins (largely because of Patricia Burgeron) are 58%, which to me is an amazing stat. If you are winning nearly 6 out of every 10 faceoffs, that's giving your team puck possession and opportunities. As it has been the case in both the NYI and OTT series', the stat that will seemingly "win the day" is special teams performance. The Penguins PP is #1 in SCP, operating at 28.3% (13-for-46). The Bruins' PP is in a log jam tied with about 5 other teams at 21.9% (7-for-32). The Penguins PK is VASTLY improved from years past, ranking #3 overall (but #2 with teams remaining) at 89.7% although the percentage doesn't do them justice. Their raw PK numbers are 35-for-39. Only 4 goals allowed in 11 games, ain't that bad imo. The Bruins PK is ranked #8 (#4 of remaining teams) at 81% (30-for-37). If the Penguins can take advantage of the "average" Bruins' PK, that may be what helps them get one step close to the SCF.
A closer look at the goaltending matchups looks like this:
Post Season Goaltending Stats.jpgVokounvsMAF.jpg
As I stated above. These numbers are near identical. The Penguins will need Vokoun to play as he has. Rask is yet another goalie that has had both regular season and post season success. Although, he has shown to be a bit more vulnerable than Anderson was, from a statistical standpoint. If the Penguins can keep up their staggering 4.27 Goals/Game average, they should be just fine. We shall see how easy/difficult it will be to crack Rask's psyche, like the Penguins did Anderson.
So how have each of these teams fared statistically? Let's take a look. First off, the visiting Boston Bruins:
BOS Individual Stats.jpg
And your Home team Penguins:
PIT Individual Stats.jpg
So there you have it folks. Your statistical breakdown of the Penguins/Bruins matchup. My overall takeaway from all these numbers is that much like the Ottawa series; this series will boil down to Special Teams and Goaltending. If Vokoun can stay his usual sharp self, and the Penguins Special Teams remain effective, the Penguins should win the series. Falter in either or both of the two, and it will become much more difficult. In the end, I think the chemistry is there, the goaltending is there, the defense is there, the scoring is there, the special teams are there. As a result, I think the Penguins will win 6, and maybe even 5.

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