Battling Bucs : Prospect Stock Watch

Believe it or not we are currently a little pas the quarter pole of minor league season for the full season affiliates at least. During this stretch the views of many Pirates prospects have had ample to chance to change both for the better and for the worse. It is still too early to say any one player is having a break out season but it is late enough to take a look at ones who very well may be building towards one. Conversely it is probably too early to call any player's season a disappointment but we can certainly look at which players appear headed that direction.
A: West Virginia Power
Risers
Stetson Allie is the most prominent riser probably of all the Pirates minor leaguers. He has gone from top pitching prospect to borderline pitching prospect to off the map hitting prospect and now he is at least viewed as a legitimate hitting prospect. Allie has been putting up a power clinic down in A ball and while his advanced age for the level, unique back story and long road ahead of him won't have him in any Top 10 lists he has definitely put himself on the radar.
The pitcher down in A ball who has done the most to raise his stock has been Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow was already veiwed as a top 10 prospect in the Pirates system but his strong start to the season could have him challenging for mid season top 100 lists. So far this season he is proving to be tough to hit and dominating on the mound although he is showing that his control has a long ways to go.
Other players down in A ball seeing their stock rise are Josh Bell, Dilson Herrera, Eric Wood and Orlando Castro. Bell after a disappointing season in 2012 is showing why the Pirates gave him 5 million dollars. Herrera isn't quite having the breakout season some expected but he is still posting solid numbers across the board. Eric Wood is showing surprising power and has now established himself as the Pirates top 3B prospect. Castro was a pitching prospect who was off the radar and thought to be a place holder for Heredia this season but he has surprised and has shown excellent command along with decent overall stuff.
Fallers
Don't be fooled into thinking the reverse isn't true for anyone down in A ball. Wyatt Mathisen the Pirates 2nd round selection last season is off to a slow start and is showing everyone that he still has a lot of work to do before he is a legitimate 2 way catching prospect. The catcher position is new to Mathisen so some struggles there isn't too much of a surprise but his lack of success with the bat is a little worrisome.
Possibly the biggest fall of all Pirates prospects this season belongs to pitcher Clay Holmes. Holmes was viewed as a borderline top 10 prospect headed into this season and was coming off a strong showing in short season ball last year. Unfortunately this season hasn't went so smoothly as Holmes has shown big command problems and is now probably a stretch to be mentioned amongst the Pirates top 20 prospects. Holmes is currently on the DL and it wouldn't surprise me to see him sent down to short season ball once that level begins play.
Other players seeing their stock fall at this level include Barrett Barnes, Max Moroff and Jason Creasy. Barnes fall has mainly been due to injury as he has only played in 10 games this season but even when healthy he hasn't shown much. It also speaks volumes that the Pirates opted to open him up in A ball instead of A+. Moroff is having a bit of a mix season showing excellent plate discipline but doing very little else both with the bat (.191 batting average) and with the glove (12 errors). Jason Creasy is actually having a decent season but the reason his stock is dropping is because he was a 2011 prep arm and the Pirates have already decided to pull the plug on his starting career as all but one of his appearances so far have been in relief.
A+: Bradenton Marauders
Risers
It is difficult to call Gregory Polanco much of a riser seeing as his stock was already sky high but all he has done in A+ is continue to impress and in my opinion he is now on the same tier as Taillon and Cole and he should easily be shooting up midseason prospect lists. There really isn't a lot Polanco can't do. Early on this season he wasn't showing much power but lately he has been correcting that problem and he is now up to 4 HRs and an ISO of .172. Polanco really has no major weakness; he makes good contact, has solid plate discipline, is a threat on the bases, is a legitimate center fielder and has a good arm.
On the pitching side there is probably no Pirates prospect off to a better start than Nicholas Kingham. Kingham may not have the shiny low ERA of some other prospects but it is still great at 2.95 plus he is provid difficult to hit and showing excellent command. Kingham is in a similar position as Glasnow. He was viewed as a Top 10 prospect in the Pirates system at the beginning of the season and his performance so far this season could vault him into the discussion on midseason top 100 lists.
The other hitters down at the A+ level aren't doing much to get their stock to rise as Carlos Mesa is probably the only other position player who has seen his stock go up. To be fair he still shouldn't be viewed as much of a prospect since he is old for the level but his strong showing has at least put him on the map. Things are not much better on the pitching side either as the only other pitcher seeming moving up is Eliecer Navarro. Like mesa, Navarro isn't much of a prospect but a strong start to the season has at least put him on the fringes of the prospect map. Navarro has been in the system a while and is one of the few holdovers left from the Littlefield days. He appeared to be in an organizational role but he was given a spot in the rotation over some borderline prospects and has done fairly well.
Fallers
It is difficult to pick one hitter who has seen his stock fall more than the others at this level. It is still early and no one has gotten off to a horrible start. Still of all the hitters at the level the one who has saw his stock drop the most in my eyes at least is Willy Garcia. It probably isn't fair to put Garcia here as it was evident he probably wasn't quite ready for this level yet but the extent of which he has been overmatched is tough to ignore. His .620 OPS doesn't scream terrible season but it is only that high thanks to him starting to show some signs of life recently. What really has been disappointing is his 39:4 strike out to walk ratio. Pitchers are just having their way with him and he is showing no discipline at all.
Zach Von Rosenberg has now fallen completely off my prospect radar. Once the Pirates best hope of developing a future ace Von Rosenberg doesn't even look like he is going to make it out of A+. The biggest tumble to ZVR's value came when the Pirates opted to use Navarro as a starter over him and it has just continue to fall as he has been awful in releif. His ERA of 5.06 is actually probably better than he deserves as he has a WHIP of 2.16 and opponents are batting .340 against him.
Other players seeing their stock fall include Alen Hanson, who's slow start probably won't cause him to drop completely off Top 100 lists but will definitely cause him to slip. Jose Osuna who is still probably the Pirates best 1B prospect has also gotten off to a slow start and with the exception of his K rate is posting numbers similar to what Garcia is doing except without any power. He is still very young though so he shouldn't be given up on quite yet. Probably the biggest flop this season belongs to Eric Avila who after a strong power filled finish to 2012 had himself back on the map only to start this season out with only 4 hits in 44 AB and now his starting 3B job belongs to organizational utility man Benji Gonzalez. The pitching hasn't been as bad although Adrian Sampson who had a strong pro debut in short season ball last year has seen his stock fall as he has been hit around hard so far this season. Also worth a mention is Zach Thornton who although he has been dominant at A+ has seen his value slip simply because the Pirates opted to send him back to A+ instead of trying him at AA.
AA: Altoona Curve
Risers
He just won't quite go away. Whenever I think it is safe to bury the prospect status of Andrew Lambo he does something to just barely hang on to it. You shouldn't read too much into Lambo's performance in AA this season as it his fifth year there but remarkably he is only 24 years old which means if he gets moved up to AAA he would be an age appropiate prospect for that level. Lambo is shwoing excellent power with a slugging percentage of .523 and deserves that promotion to AAA.
If Kingham isn't having the best season of any Pirates pitching prospect that title most certainly belongs to Stolmy Pimentel. Pimentel was plain unhittable at the beginning of the season and even though his lost start did expose some flaws his stock has still rapidly risen. He is now likely in the Pirates top 10 prospects and is a candidate to be promoted to AAA. On the down side Pimentel is having some control issues but the psotive is he isn't let them affect him too much as he has been dominant.
The hitting crop in AA has been a disappointment as outside of Lambo the only other player who could be said to have his value rising is Adalberto Santos. Santos has been fighting injuries this season but when healthy he has argubly along with Lambo been the Curve's best hitter. Santos has been learning a new positon 3B which should only add to his value as a potential future utility player. On the pitching side Tim Alderson has maanged to keep his prospect window just barely open and Jeff Inman has shown the stuff that made him regarded as a borderline 1st round pick. Both ae now limited to bullpen roles but both ahve shown enough to keep those avenues open. As for the rotation Casey Sadler has impressed and is now a popular sleeper prospect and Jameson Taillon has done well although at this point it is difficult for his stock to really rise.
Fallers
Picking one hitter to highlight above all the rest is near impossible. Everyone save Labo and Santos has struggled to hit at the AA level. Although to me there is one person who the lack of hitting affects more than anyone else and that is Alex Dickerson. Dickerson is an all bat prospect who the Pirates drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft. He has good power potential but overall just appeared to know how to hit. Defensively he is best suited for 1B although the Pirates have been using him primarily as a RF this season. Dickerson has struggled mightily with the bat posting an OPS of just .581 which is unacceptable for a prospect of his pedigree. Dickerson was considered by some a borderline top 10 guy in the Pirates system but at the pace he is currently hitting he might not even crack my pre draft top 30.
By and by the pitchers who are truly prospects at the AA level have pitched well so overall there isn't much to say about fallers. However one player who looked possibly prime to take the next step this season who has disappointed is Tyler Waldron. Now to be fair to Waldron he has missed a fair amount of time due to injury but even when healthy he struggled. There were rumors in the offseason that Waldron was being moved to the bullpen on a permanent basis but they never came to frution, it is my expectation once he recovers that is the role he will find himself in.
I could just say the entire Altoona offense save Lambo and Santos have seen their stock fall but I'll try to be a little more specific. Paulino and Ngoepe are defenive oriented players at important defensive positions, C and SS respectively, so it was expected they would struggle with the bat but the degree tp which they have, .463 and .470 OPS respectively, raises questions about wether they will ever be able to hit enough to make it any farther. Matt Curry like Dickerson is a offense first player who has struggled with the bat. He hasn't been quite as bad as Dickerson but then again he is repeating the level so his numbers should be higher. Curry is currently out of action and will require hammate surgery so he won't be back for a while. Mel Rojas and Drew Maggi have also shown very little hurting what little prospect stock they had remaining. On the pitchign side the only other player who's stock has truly taken a drop is Nathan Baker. Baker was not anything more than a possible future LOOGY heading into this season but an ERA over 16 and a WHIP of 2.81 has quickly dashed even those hopes.
AAA: indianapolis Indians
Risers
Not a whole lot of hitting prospects to choose from at AAA. Most of the players at this level are major league depth and there is little they can do at the level to raise their value. One of the few prospects there is Tony Sanchez and he is actually playing rather well and is seeing a boost to his value. Sanchez was once considered a top 10 Pirates prospect and while he won't ever recalim that level of acclaim he is starting to reenter the discussion about possible catcher of the future. Sanchez is playing well both offensively and defensively and is showing decent power. He has all the makings of at least a strong major league backup catcher and could even develop into a decent starting option.
On the pitching side there have been two players battling for the best pitcher spot on the team. One is Gerrit Cole who's stock can not possibly rise and the other is Andy Oliver. Oliver has been impressive so far and if he continues his strong perfromance he could enter the discussion as one of the Pirates top 10 prospects of course he is likely to lose his prospect status by then as this is his last option year but a short tiem frame of a coupel weeks could be available for him to make such a move. Oliver has shown some major control issues but he has struck out a lot of hitters and appears to be improving as the season progresses.
On the hitting side the only other actual prospect to talk about is Ivan De Jesus and he has been hitting well. There are still questions abouts just how well he can play shortstop but his hitting ability and the fact he isn't incapable at short could put him in play as a potential future utility player for the Pirates. Also worth noting in the rising department even though he is no longer a prospect is Jordy Mercer who now finds himself in the discussion of potential 2014 starting shortstop. On the pitching side nearly everyone is doing remarkably well. Ryan Reid, who isn't a prospect, has been dominant and could potential be a mid season call up to help out in middle relief. Victor Black and Duke Welker have pitched well and elevated their prospect status almost as high as a relief pitcher's porpsect status can go. Even Brandon Cumpton and Kris Johnson two borderline prospects filling out the rotation have pitched well enough that they look at least like viable bullpen options for this season.
Fallers
This may sound strange but there isn't a single hitting prospect who's value I can say has fallen at AAA. That is alrgely because the only real prospects here are Sanchez and De Jesus but it is still the truth. Still that doesn't mean no one's stock has fallen. Jerry Sands who no longer qualifies as a prospect has gotten off to a rough start and his stock as a potential right handed compliment or even right handed starting corner outfielder with power has fallen dramaticly. At this point Sands is probably one of the bottom guys on the 40 man roster and if the Pirates opt to make some midseason moves he could very well be one of those who go to make room.
It may not be total his fault as Kyle McPherson has been battling injruies since spring but his status as a top 10 prospect in the Pirates system is in jeopardy. McPherson has only managed to pitch in2 games this season which means he shouldn't have been able to hurt his prospect status too much but injury issues have a way of doing that as does a 19+ ERA in those two outings. There is still plenty of time for McPherson to rebound and possibly even make a major league impact this year but right now his stock is dfinitely falling.
I really can't name any other hitters who have seen their stock fall at AAA. Felix Pie has gotten off to a horrendous start but his stock remains relatively unchanged. Others such as Jared Goedert, Darren Ford and Lucas May have had underwhelming starts but nothing much was expected of that trio. On the pitching side of things the staff has been excellent outside of the injured Kyle McPherson and minor league filler Erik Cordier. The only pitcher really seeing a drop in his stock outside of McPherson is Phillip Irwin and that drop like McPherson's is essentially all injury related.
All and all this has been a fairly mixed year for the Pirates organizations. Some fairly big name prospects like Hanson, Mathisen and Holmes are seeing struggles but a lot of others Polanco, Bell, Cole and Taillon are humming right along. Some high potential guys like Dickerson, Von Rosenberg and Avila appear to be crachsing and burning but others like Allie and Castro are coming out of essentially no where to put themselves on the map. Of course all of this talk might still be too early as the minor leaguers still have about 100 games to play but its nice to get an early look and see how things are trending.