Battling Bucs : Pre-Draft Top 30 Prospects

26-30
30. Alex Dickerson
29. Brandon Cumpton
28. Joely Rodriguez
27. Casey Sadler
26. Willy Garcia
Alex Dickerson was a late addition to this list narrowly edging out Ivan De Jesus, Adalberto Santos, Robby Rowland and others. I’m not quite sure what it is about Dickerson but I have liked him ever since the Pirates selected him in the 3^rd round of the 2011 draft. He isn’t having the strongest season in AA this season but the potential is there for him to be a solid hitter both for average and power. No one has really stepped up and took control of the last spot so for now I decided to give it to Dickerson because of the potential his bat has however potential sooner or later needs to lead to results.
Cumpton comes in at 29 and he has been flying under the radar for quite some time positing solid season after solid season. He is doing the same this season in AAA and looks like he could soon be ready to contribute as a middle reliever or 5^th starter. Rodriguez has been a sleeper prospect of mine for a while now. Going into the season I called him the second best international pitching prospect in the Pirates system and he is enjoying something of a breakout season down in A ball this year. Casey Sadler is a lot like Cumpton in that he has flown under the radar. Long term he probably profiles best as a reliever but he has been showing some surprising stamina as a starter so far this season going 6 or more innings in all but one of his starts. Garcia is a raw outfielder who was pushed to A+ this year despite not appearing ready for the level. The results so far have proven this as he has been overmatched. Still at 20 years old he has a huge upside.
21-25
25. Jin-De Jhang
24. Clay Holmes
23. Stetson Allie
22. Adrian Sampson
21. Eric Wood
We all know Stetson Allie’s story by now. He was a raw flame throwing pitching prospect who when he wasn’t able to harness his control the Pirates converted him to a position player. This season in A ball Allie is absolutely crushing it putting up the best offensive numbers in the system by far. However this comes with the disclaimer that at 22 years old he is a little old for the level. Allie was known to have a good bat coming out of the draft and could very well be legit but before I rank him any higher I am going to have to see him perform against more advanced competition. The potential is there for Allie but due to his unique background he should still be considered a work in progress.
Rounding out the rest of the top 25, Jin-De Jhang, is one of only two players on my list who has yet to play this season. Jhang is a very raw catcher and made his state’s debut last season down in rookie ball. He hit very well and even showed some solid defense but he still has a long road in front of him. Clay Holmes burst on to the scene last season putting up stellar numbers in A-. Of concern though was his low strike out rate and high walk rate. This season as he moved up to A ball those two things have caught up with him and his start to the season has been largely up and down. Holmes also has an unorthodox delivery which likely is contributing to his control problems. Adrian Sampson is a lot like Holmes except he is a bit more polished. He burst on to the scene last year with stellar numbers in A- as well but the difference is he was striking people out and limiting his free passes. The Pirates aggressively pushed him all the way to A+ this season and he is struggling to adjust. Eric Wood comes in at #21 despite being largely unknown last year on draft day. The Pirates selected Wood in the 6^th round last year and he was largely dismissed as an under slot guy. Well Wood received a fairly sizeable 100K bonus and is showing why as he has hit very well since starting his pro career and is showing some good power.
16-20
20. Max Moroff
19. Duke Welker
18. Phillip Irwin
17. Wyatt Mathisen
16. Jose Osuna
Phillip Irwin represents a bit of a test case here. He is the ultimate high floor low ceiling prospect. Irwin who is currently injured right now doesn’t look likely to improve much from where he is currently at but right now he looks like a fairly safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter. What exactly is that type of prospect worth? The injury is a concern but he should in the long run be just fine and even though he comes with very little upside he still has value. His stuff isn’t dominating but he has shown great command. He is exactly the type of prospect who always gets overlooked because there is just northing exciting about him.
Max Moroff comes in at 20 and is fairly similar to #21 Eric Wood. The Pirates signed Moroff to an over slot deal last year after failing to sign Mark Appel. Like Wood Moroff posted good numbers in rookie ball in 2012 and got fairly aggressively pushed to A ball this season. His numbers so far this season are not great but he is showing solid plate discipline and holding his own at the shortstop position. Duke Welker is in some ways a lot like Irwin. He isn’t likely to progress much from where he is now but it looks like he should be able to immediately step in and be a solid bullpen piece possibly a back of the bullpen arm. Mathisen was drafted in the second round of last year’s draft and was considered the best prep catcher in the draft. He shared catching duties with Jhang last season in rookie ball hit well and shown good athleticism behind the plate. The Pirates determined he was the more advanced of the two catchers and pushed him to A ball this season where he has started the year off quite poorly. He has the potential but that isn’t shining through right now. Jose Osuna is a 20 year old first base prospect in A+. He performed well in A ball last season but hasn’t gotten off to the best start this year. However as I noted he is just 20 years old so that isn’t really cause for concern yet. Hopefully he can turn it around as the year moves forward.
11-15
15. Stolmy Pimentel
14. Victor Black
13. Barrett Barnes
12. Kyle McPherson
11. Andy Oliver
Stolmy Pimentel is a tough prospect to get a grip on. He started the season off so well in AA and looked so dominant that I initially had him as a candidate for my top 10 but May came and he has a very rough patch posting some horrible numbers. He has the stuff to be great and has shown flashes of that but the down side is this his last option year so time is running short. At this point the Pirates are soon going to have to pull the plug on this starting thing and try him as a reliever. On pure talent he ranks amongst the Pirates best arms but there is still a lot that needs to be done.
Victor Black is a lot like Welker. In that his upside is limited due to him being a relief pitcher but unlike Welker I am very confident that Black one day soon will find himself at the back of the Pirates bullpen. He has dominating stuff and while he does have some control problems he has been showing improvements in that area. Continuing with my prospect comps Barnes is a lot like Mathisen. He was drafted in the supplemental round last season put up good numbers in short season ball but so far is struggling in A ball. Now it should be noted Barnes hasn’t played much in A ball this season as he has been fighting injuries for most of the season. McPherson due to his upside, mid rotation starter, and proximity to the big leagues (co-favorite along with Locke to be the #5 starter) was a top 10 prospect coming into the season. However McPherson has been fighting injuries all year and has only pitched in two minor league games dropping him out of my top 10. Going the opposite direction of McPherson is Andy Oliver. Oliver is a lot like Justin Wilson in that he has great stuff especially for a left handed pitcher but he struggles to command it. So far this season he has been the Pirates best starter in AAA but the control problems are still haunting him. If it could get them under control he might be able to be a legit #3 starter right now in the majors with the potential for more as he develops.
6-10
10. Dilson Herrera
9. Tony Sanchez
8. Nicholas Kingham
7. Luis Heredia
6. Josh Bell
Heredia is probably slipping down some prospect boards right now largely due to the fact that he has yet to play this season. Reports are he showed up out of shape and the Pirates have been working with him to get him ready to pitch but it is already June and he hasn’t appeared yet. The Pirates might ultimately send him back to A-. He is only 18 though so that really wouldn’t be a huge set back. In my opinion his stock hasn’t changed much but other prospects have at this point just simply passed him up. Heredia still has arguably the highest upside of any prospect in the Pirates organization so hopefully he starts pitching soon.
Dilson Herrera a sleeper candidate entering the season has not disappointed in A ball. He was often compared to Alen Hanson entering the season and while eh hasn’t put up the eye popping numbers Hanson did he has still been very solid at the A ball level. Tony Sanchez who was out of essentially every top 10 at the beginning of the season and on the verge of becoming a bust has thrust himself back into the conversation with a very good start to the year in AAA. Not only is he continuing to play solid defense but he is putting up solid numbers with the bat as well. Sanchez is undoubtedly ready to contribute at the major league level right now and could very well develop into a solid starting catcher. Nicholas Kingham was another sleeper prospect entering the season and he hasn’t disappointed either. He has been great at the A+ level. His ERA looks good but his peripherals are even better as he is striking out a lot of guys and not walking man at all. Josh Bell who a lot of people were down on due to an injury plagued 2012 finds himself back on the map as he has been hitting the ball very well. His performance is being overshadowed by the monster numbers Allie is putting up but he is still off to a great start.
1-5
5. Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow really burst on the scene last year with a great showing in rookie ball. He instantly became the most successful version of Neal Huntington’s projectable right handed pitcher strategy. At just 19 years old he is fairly young for A ball but he is putting up tremendous numbers including some impressive strike out totals. His performance so far should start to garner him some national attention and could even cause him to appear on some midseason top 100 prospects lists.
4. Alen Hanson
Hanson started the year off slowly, not hitting well and fielding horrifically. The Pirates and the West Virginia Power’s manager then gave him a few days off to clear his head and ever since then he has been playing much better both offensively and defensively. There remain questions about whether Hanson will ultimately be able to stick at the shortstop position and a move off of it would indeed negatively affect his prospect value but for now he should remain a top 100 prospect rather easily.
3. Gregory Polanco
Right now the difference between Polanco and the top two prospects on the Pirates list is minimal if it exists at all. There is honestly essentially nothing Polanco cannot do. He has displayed the ability to hit for average and power. He has shown great speed on the base paths, good defense in the outfield and a great arm. He is an all around player and as he continues to hit well in A+ his stock just keeps going up every day. Polanco is a complete player and gives the Pirates an exceptional position player prospect to go along with their two potential aces.
2. Jameson Taillon
Taillon isn’t dominating quite the way I would like to see him in AA but he is still pitching well and getting a fair amount of strike outs. If he hadn’t signed with the Pirates out of high school he would just now be a draft eligible junior so the fact he has reached AA already puts him fairly far ahead of schedule. Taillon has all the talent in the world and could very well develop into an ace. He is continuing to work on developing his changeup which is an important part of his development moving forward. He already has a plus fastball and curveball but really needs to add a third pitch to be effective. Really there isn’t much you can say about him. At this point he will probably receive a promotion to AAA later in the season
1. Gerrit Cole
You could argue for Taillon or Polanco at number one and would have a very legitimate case but for me Cole remains ahead but just ever so slightly. So far the 2013 season isn’t going how one would hope it would for Cole. He isn’t pitching poorly by any means just not quite the way I would have expected. His numbers at AAA are solid but he is having difficulty striking people out and has had trouble with walking people (although that improved in May). Essentially he is a slightly more polished version of Jameson Taillon which is why I have ahead by the slightest of margins. Cole has all the talent in the world and easily has the “stuff” to be a #1 starter the question is can he turn that stuff into results. Make no mistake about it Cole’s talent alone will make him a useful starting pitcher in the majors but if he can just grasp that next step and learn how to better pitch he could be truly special. Cole could step in right now and be a good starter for the Pirates but he is not a fully finished product and with just a little more seasoning he could potentially not only be good but the best pitcher on the staff by miles.