I don't mean this to be a trade rumor or anything but just a simple thought experiment. For 5 consecutive seasons from 2007-2011 the Pirates and Orioles both had top 5 picks in the baseball draft. During this time the two franchises had the opportunity to select up to 5 players each who could in theory be helping fuel their current success. My thought experiment is what if the two sides decided to swap all 5 first round picks today which team would come out ahead. In short would you want the Pirates to make such a move. First a disclaimer there is one player currently no longer within the Pirates organization who for this purpose we are going to assume they have reacquired.
Now let's review the 1st round draft picks.
2007: Daniel Moskos - Matt Wieters
2008: Pedro Alvarez - Brian Matusz
2009: Tony Sanchez - Matt Hobgood
2010: Jameson Taillon - Manny Machado
2011: Gerrit Cole - Dylan Bundy
Another way to view this trade which I believe makes it more accurate is to compare the relative position of each player in this trade.
Headliner: Gerrit Cole (6) - Manny Machado (5)
Top Prospect: Jameson Taillon (7) - Dylan Bundy (7)
Solid Starter: Pedro Alvarez (3) - Matt Wieters (2)
Contributor: Tony Sanchez (7) - Brian Matusz (3)
Throw In: Daniel Moskos (7) - Matt Hobgood (7)
In () I put an estimate of how many major league seasons each player can be controlled for. In the case of Taillon, Bundy, Sanchez, Moskos and Hobgood the answer is either 6 or 7 depending on whether or not you keep the player down for part of the year. For simplicity sake I assumed the clubs would hold out for the extra service year in all cases.
I think it is quite clear Machado is the best player in this deal but I also tend to think the Pirates players is more valuable in all other spots. Taillon and Bundy is close but Bundy is coming off TJ surgery which gives the edge to Taillon. Wieters ir probably a slightly more valuable player than Alvarez but the gap is small and the extra year tips the scale in Alvarez's favor. Matusz has the higher upside but very well could end up a reliever and with four less years of control than Sanchez I think he has more value. As for the throw ins they are essentially negligible but I'd take Moskos who looks like a serviceable left handed bullpen depth option over Hobgood who is a 23 year old who is struggling to make it out of A ball.
I think Machado over Cole probably more than makes up for the differences between the other four sets but I think its close and I'm not sure which group I'd rather have moving forward. Just because I really want to see the Cole/Taillon duo a top the rotation I'd probably lean towards the Pirates group but I could be convinced either way. Essentially what I'm saying is that I think the Orioles set is probably slightly more valuable but that I would prefer the Pirates stick with what they have. That may not make the most sense but that is where I am at. Anyone else have any thoughts?
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