Battling Bucs : Bullpen Usage

There has been a lot of talk about how much the Pirates are relying on the bullpen and how worn down they might become. The obvious question is just how do the Pirates avoid this. Well for starters let’s take a look at projected usage of relievers at the current rates.
Jason Grilli: 81 G, 72.2 IP, 1219 Pitches
Mark Melancon: 88 G, 88 IP, 1190 Pitches
Justin Wilson: 56 G, 94 IP, 1588 Pitches
Tony Watson: 70 G, 76.1 IP, 1342 Pitches
Vin Mazzaro: 49 G, 55.1 IP, 870 Pitches
Bryan Morris: 35 G, 51.2 IP, 761 Pitches
Others: 92 G, 132.2 IP, 2303 Pitches
Starting with Grilli we see an inning count that actually isn’t too bad and a pitch number that is just slightly above 1200 which from what I’ve seen in previous seasons is usually right around the average workload of the most highly worked late inning relievers. The only thing really worrisome with Grilli is the sheer number of games he has pitched in. Ideally that number should be in the low 70s and definitely no higher than the mid 70s. At his current rate Grilli is projected for an additional 58 appearances Hurdle is likely going to have to cut about 7-10 off of that to keep him fresh.
Looking at Melancon we see even a higher number of appearances and higher number of innings however due to his remarkable efficiency his projected pitch count is under the 1200 baseline that back end reliever usually throw (while pitching 10 to 15 fewer innings than what Melancon is projected to do). Melancon’s amazing efficiency might be able to buy him a couple extra appearances and innings than usual but even so the 63 additional ones of each he is on pace for isn’t going to cut it. The Pirates might be able to get away with having Melancon finish in the high 70s in appearances and innings but even there he is going to need his projected counts trimmed by roughly 10.
Now we move on to the left handers and this is where the concern really starts to set in. Long relievers like Wilson typically are good for more innings and pitches than your general late inning guys but even so 94 IP and 1588 pitches is stretching it. Generally speaking relievers don’t crack the 1500 pitch mark or the 90 IP mark. Even with Wilson likely being stretched out more it would probably be a good idea to keep him under these limits. The additional 40 games he projects to pitch in is fine if is average appearances starts to shorten towards where he is called upon to get 3 or 4 outs but if he is going to be continued to be used as a multiple inning reliever the Pirates are going to have to rein him in as well.
Watson is probably my biggest concern here. His appearance count and inning count isn’t out of line but he has been fairly inefficient so far and that is causing his pitch count to rise. As mentioned earlier we probably don’t want it going much past 1200 if past that mark at all. He is projected for an additional 55 IP this season and he can probably handle that or something close to it if he becomes more efficient but if not the Pirates are going to have to rein that in some and probably limit him to around 65 IP on the season.
Mazzaro and Morris are horses of different colors here. I would be surprised if either remains with the team all season and it should be pointed out each has already spent time in AAA. There major league workloads aren’t a problem at this point. In fact middle relievers like them in previous season typically throw anywhere between 800-1000 pitches so each of them has a little room to expand should that be necessary. The questions becomes can the Pirates trust them in situations where the ball is usually turned over to 1 of the top 4?
Now the others category currently consists of Hughes, Gomez, Contreras, Leroux and Sanchez. Two of those pitchers aren’t coming back to fill in any more time but others (Welker, Black, Reid, Zagurski, Karstens, etc) will likely be up at some point to help fill the roles they left behind and possibly even take some of the workload that Grilli, Melancon, Watson and Wilson will be shedding. Contreras is the only one currently in the team’s bullpen and he has been amazingly very lightly used. His numbers (strike out and walk rates) aren’t too bad in his limited time so Hurdle is going to have to start relying on him more. Contreras is a veteran and has shown some positive signs in his rehab stint and limited appearances thus far and can probably be relied upon in some 7^th or 8^th inning situations. I don’t see Contreras lasting the entire season with the Pirates but he currently projects to only pitch 14 innings with the Pirates. I think the Pirates should be able to get 30-40 innings out of him no problem this season.
As for the rest of the other I suspect we will see Gomez move back to the bullpen at some point in the near future and he will hopefully be able to absorb some of the multiple inning roles Wilson and even Watson are being called on to do. Karstens is slowly getting healthy and it is possible there will be no place for him in the rotation so he can be another option to eat some innings. Behind these guys is a nice stable of guys pitching well in AAA in Hughes, Welker, Black, Zagurski and Reid. Some of them will likely be up to take some turns as well. In addition to that starters Johsnon and Oliver and currently injured pitchers McPherson, Irwin and McDonald are also options. The Pirates have enough depth to weather the storm the question is will they use it?
Of course the best way to help the bullpen is for the starters to go deeper into games. The Pirates are currently averaging about 5.1 IP per start. Even getting just roughly one more out per start over the remainder of the season would reduce the bullpen’s remaining workload by about 40 innings. Moral of the story here is the Pirates need to monitor their top quartet of bullpen arms closely but the Pirates have the starters and depth needed to keep them relatively rested. All that remains is whether the Pirates will be able to properly utilize it.