Battling Bucs : 2014 Steelers Salary Cap

I'm no expert on the NFL Salary Cap and sometimes the rules can get very complex but I have taken the best information I could find and attempted to assemble a clear picture of the cap situation facing the Steelers as they head into 2014. The current estimated cap number is 126.3 million dollars. To my best estimates the Steelers tentatively have 42 players on their roster counting against next year’s cap for approximately 131 million dollars. In addition to that amount the Steelers also have approximately 4.5 million in dead money tied up in numerous players but primarily Willie Colon (4.3 million). This puts the team approximately 9.2 million over the estimated cap. We also must include another approximately 4.5 million to accommodate 9 league min guys to fill out the Rule of 51 (in the offseason the highest paid 51 players are used to determine salary cap compliance). This puts the Steelers 13.7 million over.
The Steelers will be able to roll over any amount they are under this year which I seen an estimate that they are under by approximately 1.3 million which puts them essentially 12.5 million over. To get to a point where they have some available cap space to use we will likely see a few restructures, maybe a few extensions and quite possibly a few releases. It is near impossible to figure the exact nature of restructures and extensions so I'm going to focus primarily on releases but will touch on what is possible with the others.
According to the numbers I have seen there are 13 players the Steelers can releases prior to June 1st who would save them 1 million dollars in cap space.
Troy Polamalu 8.25 M
Ike Taylor 7.00 M
Levi Brown 6.25 M
Heath Miller 6.02 M
Ben Roethlisberger 5.31 M
Maurkice Pouncey 4.11 M
Steve McLendon 1.87 M
Ramon Foster 1.45 M
Shaun Suisham 1.43 M
William Gay 1.33 M
Cameron Heyward 1.29 M
Bruce Gradkowski 1.27 M
Larry Foote 1.17 M
The above is gross savings in practice each of these players would be replaced in the Rule of 51 with someone probably making a little less than 500 K. So to get a net effect knock half a million off of those figures.
Below are all the players who would come with a 1 million dollar or greater gross cap savings if released post June 1st. I have also included in () what would be their dead money charge in 2015.
Ben Roethlisberger: 12.10 M (6.80 M)
Troy Polamalu: 8.25 M (0 M)
LaMarr Woodley: 8.00 M (8.58 M)
Ike Taylor: 7 M (0 M)
Lawrence Timmons: 6.75 M (8.13 M)
Levi Brown: 6.25 M (0 M)
Heath Miller: 6.02 M (0 M)
Antonio Brown: 6.00 M (5.71 M)
Maurkice Pouncey: 4.11 M (0 M)*
Steve McLendon: 2.43 M (0.56 M)
Ramon Foster: 1.65 M (0.20 M)
Bruce Gradkowski: 1.55 M (0.28 M)
William Gay: 1.50 M (0.28 M)
Larry Foote: 1.50 M (0.33 M)
Shaun Suisham: 1.43 M (0 M)
Cameron Heyward: 1.29 M (0 M)
David DeCastro: 1.10 M (2.88 M)
* Pouncey I'm even more uncertain about than the others because he has a 2.825 M dollar roster bonus for 2014 and I don't know when that gets paid so if its prior to June 1st his savings would only amount to 1.29 million.
With the exception of Levi Brown those who come with a 0 dead money charge in 2015 are free agents at the end of the year. Levi Brown comes with no dead money for the Steelers because the Cardinals are responsible for it.
The above should give you a good idea of who the Steelers could potentially release. Levi Brown will almost surely be released. I have his savings at 6.25 million but it may only be 6 million as I'm not quite certain how his annual work out bonus is counted. That gets them down to about 6.5 million. I think Larry Foote is also likely to be cut although cutting him would save very little cap room. The Steelers will need to get cap compliant for the start of the league year so June 1st cuts will have no effect on that so the Steelers will quite possibly have to cut either Ike Taylor or Troy Polamalu. Of course the prime post June 1st cap casualty candidate is LaMarr Woodley. Releasing him would probably give the Steelers enough cap room for the draft class and/or some low level free agent pickups.
I will touch on possible restructure candidates. Prime restructure candidates are players with big base salaries that have more than 2 years remaining on their contract. The Steelers have 4 such players in Antonio Brown, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley and Levi Brown. I can't see either Woodley or Brown getting a restructure so most likely we will see the team approach Timmons and Brown about such deals. Assuming the team opts to give each player a 1 million dollar base salary for 2014 and turn the rest into a signing bonus the cap savings for 2014 would be 3.75 million for Antonio Brown and 4.67 million for Lawrence Timmons. So right there is approximately 8.5 million in potential cap savings.
As for extensions we are looking for players with big cap numbers who you want to actually keep for a few more years. There are 9 players with a 2014 cap hit of greater than 5 million. Four of them already have contracts of at least 3 years which mean they are less likely. The remaining 5 players are Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, Troy Polamalu, Heath Miller and Maurkice Pouncey. I'll let it up to you to decide who if any of these guys you want to keep beyond their current contract.
So there you have it the Steelers have approximate 12.5 million to trim off the salary cap to get cap compliant. If you assume they release Levi Brown and restructure Brown and Timmons that gives you about 14 million in savings meaning they would be cap compliant but would have to make other moves to sign their draft picks and make additional pickups. I believe those three moves are a given but I'll let everyone else speculate on the rest.