Although we ended with a rally, on the whole it was a terrible options expiration week with the S&P dropping 33 points (2%), back to 1,555, 42 points off the April 10th high of 1,597. On April 11th, I had warned that the popping of the BitCoin bubble could mirror the popping of the broad market bubble over the next 60 days if earnings weren't up to snuff, with only Fed and BOJ easing giving us true support.
So far, we've got 70 of the S&P 500 reporting and 2/3 of them – 67.3% to be exact – have beaten EPS estimates and that would be great except that only 1/2 (36%) beat revenue estimates, with just 2.1% year over year growth (earnings are up 1.6% from last year). What does it mean if companies are beating on earnings and missing revenues (the case for 1/2 of the companies with earnings beats)? It means they are CUTTING BACK SPENDING and that is NOT a booster for the broader economy, is it?
We had a lovely discussion about the velocity of money and inflation and the economy on Thursday afternoon in Member Chat so I won't get into it again but, suffice to say that more Corporate Profits and less Corporate Spending is simply adding to that great, heaping supply of money that is building up behind the walls and I talked about the repercussions of inflation and the economy in yesterday's morning post so again, no reason to rehash.
Clearly we are all doomed as a nation if we allow the above chart to continue it's ugly tend. Well, not all, I can take my money and run along with the rest of you who are in the top 1% and, if you are smart, you are already diversifying yourself in such a way that you can just get on a plane and re-locate to a more stable nation – should the need arise. Meanwhile, America is party central for the top 1% – as the chart clearly illustrates and, as long as the workers keep putting up with it – there's no reason for us to leave the party early, is there?What you see in the 10% drop in wages (even worse if you factor in benefits) over the past 10 years…
This article will become free after 48 hours (see below for free content). To read the rest of this article now, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, additional member comments, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.