(The image above was found at the website Geekation.com.)A lot of political pundits have been predicting that the 2014 election would look a lot like the 2010 election -- where a lot of voters stayed home while angry Republicans voted in large numbers. That election was a smashing victory for the GOP, and flipped the House over to their control. A repeat of the 2010 election would not only let the GOP keep control of the House, but some have even said they might win enough senate seats to also take over control of that body.
But the Republicans have done a few things that make people wonder if they are engaging in political suicide -- things like waging a war on women's rights, opposing the passing of immigration reform, instituting a gridlock in Congress that prevented job creation efforts, imposed drastic across-the-board sequestration cuts, killed a background checks law for gun buyers, and are now threatening to shut the government down to kill Obamacare.
The effect of these things has been to give Democrats a boost -- and now it looks like the prospects of Democrats keeping control of the Senate are improving. New polls are now showing that the Democrats may even have a chance to win (or keep) senate seats that many once thought they had no chance to win in states like Kentucky, Arkansas, and Georgia -- states that were solidly in the Republican column.
The first of these is in Kentucky, where Minority Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is running for re-election. It is almost unthinkable that a Minority Leader would be in electoral trouble in his home state, but that is exactly the situation (at least right now). McConnell not only has a primary opponent, but is polling dead even with his Democratic opponent, Alison Grimes:
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (July 19-21 -- MOE 2.8)
Alison Grimes...............45%
Mitch McConnell...............44%
Unsure...............11%
Then we have the state of Arkansas, where Democrat Mark Pryor is running for re-election. The political wisdom was that this would be a sure win for the Republicans, and a step toward taking the Senate back. But Pryor seems to be staging a bit of a comeback, and a union poll shows Pryor with an eight point lead while a right-wing poll shows him trailing his opponent within the margin of error -- which is good early news for an incumbent:
AFSCME POLL (July 23-27 -- MOE 4.0)
Mark Pryor...............43%
Tom Cotton...............35%
Unsure...............18%
HARPER/CONSERVATIVE INTEL POLL (Aug. 4-5 -- MOE 4.04)
Mark Pryor...............41%
Tom Cotton...............43%
Unsure...............16%
In Georgia, one of the reddest states in the country, there is an open senate seat in the 2014 election. It was almost a foregone conclusion that one of the many Republicans running for this seat would win it. But the Democrats may have upset that applecart with their candidate -- Michelle Nunn, daughter of extremely popular ex-senator Sam Nunn. Ms. Nunn is currently running even with, or ahead of, all the Republican hopefuls:
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Aug. 2-5 -- MOE 4.3)
Michelle Nunn...............41%
Paul Broun................36%
Unsure...............23%
Michelle Nunn...............41%
Phil Gingrey...............41%
Unsure...............18%
Michelle Nunn...............42%
Derrick Grayson...............36%
Unsure...............22%
Michelle Nunn...............40%
Karen Handel...............38%
Unsure...............22%
Michelle Nunn...............40%
Jack Kingston...............38%
Unsure...............21%
Michelle Nunn...............40%
David Perdue...............40%
Unsure...............21%
Michelle Nunn...............42%
Eugene Yu...............35%
Unsure...............24%
All of these races are far from sure things for the Democratic candidates. But they are also far from sure things for the GOP candidates -- and that is a pleasant surprise for Democrats. And these good early numbers could well energize the Democratic workers in those states.
