Even-strength offensive-zone risk/reward is a measurement of how well a player plays in the offensive-zone. It is calculated by subtracting the number of unsuccessful plays a player makes in the offensive-zone per-minute of play from the number of successful plays per-minute of play. Only even-strength events and ice-time are used in this calculation.
Risk/reward rating measures successful or unsuccessful events involving puck-possession. It does not take into account goals, assists or traditional plus/minus. It focuses on the offensive-process and not on the offensive-result.
Successful offensive-zone events used in this calculation include:
- Won puck-battles
- Completed passes
- Successful dekes
- Shots on net
- Blocked opposition passes
- Recovered loose-pucks
Unsuccessful offensive-zone events used in this calculation include:
- Lost puck-battles
- Unsuccessful pass-attempts
- Unsuccessful deke-attempts
- Shots that miss the net
- Loose-puck races lost
Max Pacioretty has the top offensive-zone risk/reward rating this season. Pacioretty also has the top success-rate for events requiring him to acquire puck-possession; these plays include puck-battles, and loose-puck recoveries. He wins 55% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, and completes 56% of his o-zone pass-attempts. He also hits the net with a higher percentage of his attempted shots than any other Montreal player, as number 67 hits the net with 60% of his attempted shots.Other forwards with o-zone ratings above 0.45 include Scott Gomez, Louis Leblanc and Lars Eller. Gomez's rating is the product of his ability to recover loose-pucks in the offensive-zone, while Eller has a high success-rate when attempting to beat opposition players 1on1 (deke). As for Leblanc, he has shown an ability to get a high-percentage of his shots through to the net, while also beating opposing players 1on1; particularly with his cut-backs along the boards.
Other forward with rating above 0.40 include Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnias, Mathieu Darche, and Erik Cole. Plekanec is successful with 61% of his o-zone passes, while Desharnais completes an impressive 65% of his passes. Darche, for his part, wins 57% of his o-zone puck-battles. Cole recovers a large number of loose-pucks, while getting 57% of his attempted shots on net.
Kaberle has the top o-zone risk/reward rating among defensemen. He completes an amazing 72% of his o-zone pass-attempts, and gets an impressive 77% of his attempted shot through to the net. Although PK Subban's o-zone rating doesn't match Kaberle, it does distance him from the other defensemen. Subban is successful with an impressive 82% of his attempts to beat opposition players 1on1 (dekes) and gets 51% of his shots through to the net.
Rene Bourque, Michael Blunden and Andreas Engqvist have the lowest offensive-zone risk/reward ratings among forwards. Bourque's rating is the only surprise. The Habs newest forward does a great job recovering loose-pucks, and does get 51% of his attempted shots on net. That said, he is successful with only 43% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, fifty-one percent of his attempted passes, and 49% of his attempted dekes.
Risk/reward ratings quantify the results of plays involving puck-possession. Taking into account ice-time allows us to compare players more equally.
