The injury to Brian Gionta and the trade of Mike Cammalleri have shifted the look of the Canadiens top-6 wingers. Since his arrival, Rene Bourque has been the least effective of the four, while Max Pacioretty has been playing at a level well above his teammates. Erik Cole's play has been trending down of late, while Andrei Kostitsyn's play has been trending up.
The below graph is a visual representation of the Habs top-6 wingers' play through the 11 games since Bourque's arrival. The thinner of the coloured lines show the players' overall risk/reward ratings during the games listed at the bottom of the graph, while the thicker line represents how the players ratings are trending.
Pacioretty currently has the top overall risk/reward rating among Canadiens forwards. During the last 11 games he has produced two risk/reward ratings above 2.00, and has had the top overall risk/reward rating among these four players in 9 of the 11 games. He has never produced a negative risk/reward rating, and has earned only one rating below 1.00. He also has the top offensive-zone risk/reward rating this season, and leads the team in offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries. He has the best success-rate for plays that require him to remove or acquire puck-possession from the opposition.
Cole has the second-best overall risk/reward rating among these players, but only the eleventh-best rating among forwards. He's among the leaders in neutral-zone passing percentage, and offensive-zone puck-recoveries. Cole is involved in 2.02 offensive-zone events per-minute of ice-time. This translates to 55% of his total events. In other words, when Cole is on the ice the puck is in the offensive-zone much more often than it is in the defensive-zone.
Kostitsyn has the third-best overall risk/reward rating among this group of players, but only the thirteenth-best among Canadiens forwards. His offensive-zone risk/reward rating is slightly above average, while his defensive-zone rating is well below-average. Kostitsyn has the third-lowest offensive-zone passing success-rate, and the third-lowest defensive-zone passing percentage. He is successful with only 52% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 in the o-zone. Fifty-one percent of Kostitsyn's events take place in the offensive-zone.
The data for Rene Bourque is still quite minimal. We can still only speak in terms of trends. That said, the trend is not good. Through 11 games, Bourque has the lowest overall risk/reward rating on the team. He has the second-lowest even-strength risk/reward rating and only the fourteenth-best offensive-zone rating. Bourque simply loses puck-possession too often. In fact, he has the lowest success-rate of any roster player when it comes to plays that require him to maintain possession (passes, dekes).
Looking forward to next season, Pacioretty has established himself as the Habs top forward. Despite his age, Cole has proven his worth as a top-6 winger. The loss of upcoming free-agent Andrei Kostitsyn puts Bourque in a position to simply replace Kostitsyn's offense; possibly from the third-line. The return of Gionta fills out one more spot; returning the Canadiens to the familiar position of looking for a top-6 forward capable of producing substantial offensive-numbers.
