Last year was a great year for first timers. Cillian Murphy, Coleman Domingo, Jeffrey Wright, Lily Gladstone, Sandra Hueller, Sterling K Brown, Danielle Brooks, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Emily blunt, and America Ferrera all became Oscar nominees. this year, we take a look at the 10 actors most likely to get their first acting nomination this year.
1) Best Actor: Daniel Craig (Queer)
Craig, hot off his tenure as James Bond, and following some excellent stage work, has teamed up with Luca Guadanino on his second film of 2024. With a more Oscar friendly release pattern than Challengers, it is likely that Craig’s leading performance will get all the praise it needs to at least give him that nomination he’s been chasing for quite sometime now. He’s never been closer to a nomination, and most people doing early predictions have him in their top 5. It is just one of those things that feels like it’s his time.It also sounds like the kind of film and role we wouldn’t normally expect from Craig.
2) Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Detweiler (the Piano Lesson)
Sure, the hype may be there for previously nominated co-star Samuel l Jackson, but Detweiler was just the center of the most egregious snub two years ago when she failed to earn a widely presumed nomination for Till. That outrage is still fresh, and it is very likely her performance here will have the kind of momentum to propel her into the race.This is Netflix, and it is based on an August Wilson play, and she may not even be the only first time nominee if this film over performs. John David Washington might follow her, and with his father also an outside potential for Gladiator 2, we might have father and son in the same year.
3) Best Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Perhaps even more so than his co-star who has the unenviable task of portraying a media lightning rod, Strong is playing Roy Cohn. And for those who saw his explosive work in the middling Armageddon Time, there’s no doubt that this Emmy winner can turn that into an Oscar performance. he might even have to compete against a former Succession co-star.
4) Kieran Culkin (A Real pain)
Culkin is technically a co-lead, but films rarely ever run both actors in lead. She Said ran carey Mulligan in supporting, and Judas and the Black Messiah apparently has no lead. Since Eisenberg is also the director, he is likely also the lead, which gives Culkin a narrative going up against his Succession co-star. It’s 2024, and the first Culkin might get an Oscar nomination. Now the question is, do Brian Cox or Sarah Snook secretly have a film coming out this year that could be a contender?
5) Best Actor: nicholas Hold (Juror No. 2)
Despite the recent track record of director Clint Eastwood, Juror No 2 seems to have peaked interest. What has me tracking this is that Holt has been steadily increasing his clout, with a much praised performance in The Great, and a memorable supporting turn in Mad Max Fury Road. Plus, always look for the narrative. holt is reteaming with Toni Collette, who hasn’t been nominated since the Sixth Sense. If Eastwood doesn’t let these two down, I don’t know why these About A Boy co-stars can’t get a nomination.
6) Best Actress/Supporting Actress: Robin wright (Here)
I’m obviously hesitant about a Robert Zemeckis/Tom Hanks reteam after Pinocchio. However, Here, which reportedly tested through the roof, also co-stars Robin Wright. This is her first pairing with Hanks since Forrest Gump, and shockingly she’s never been nominated. I know. Right? Or should I say wright? It’s her time. That’s the narrative. Plain and simple. A long overdue nomination.
7) George Macklin (Sing Sing)
You may not have heard of this Sing Sing breakout, but everyone who has seen this film before can’t stop talking about his performance. As a former inmate of the prison who reformed his life, and eventually found himself into this role that hits close to home, he obviously has the connection to the character to carry this home. It is very possible that he’ll be the unknown darling of the season, and since he’s not young like last years breakouts Charles Melton and Dominic Sessa, he’s actually got a shot.
8) Best Actor: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
While not as consistently critically acclaimed throughout his career, Stan does have to play an 80’s version of Donald Trump. it will either go horribly awry, or very right. in an election year, there’s no way people won’t be talking about his performance, either in a good way or a bad way. He’s the “impossible to ignore” performance. but with solid Trump impersonations already being done, can Stan bring something else to the table?
9) Best Actor/Best Supporting Actor: Harris Dickenson (Blitz)
A rising star, akin to Austin butler a few years back, Dickenson might find his way into the category as a surprise alongside co-star Saorise Ronan, as blitz picks up steam. this wouldn’t be his first brush with Oscar’s, he was one of the stars of Triangle Of Sadness, but it’s the one where he could find himself in the race if he can stand out alongside Ronan, and not be overshadowed by her previously nominated and never won presence.
10) Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
Lyonne has been in Hollywood forever, and is finally at that point in her career where she feels like she’s having a moment. I don’t know much about this film, or which of the daughters is most likely, but I’m willing to bet that around the time season 2 of poker Face is slated to drop, she’ll be able to pick up buzz for her turn in this Oscar bait. She is 10th on my list right now of possible performances, but last year we gave America Ferrara and Oscar nomination, so I’m open to pretty much anything.
