Politics Magazine

Will Something Similar To "Bradley Effect" Help Moore Win ?

Posted on the 21 November 2017 by Jobsanger
Will Something Similar
Will Something Similar
The charts above are from RealClearPolitics. They show the average of the latest polls in the Alabama Senate race between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones. Note that the sexual accusations of Moore with teenage girls has caused the race to close dramatically -- and currently the polls average showed the race is a virtual tie (Jones 46.5% to Moore 46.3%).
That means the race, according to the polls, is a toss-up. Either candidate could win. I still have a hard time believing that Alabama will send Jones to Washington. It's a bright red state, and normally a very easy win for any Republican -- even one with the extreme views of Roy Moore.
I think we should prepare ourselves for something like the "Bradley effect" to happen. Back in 1982, Los Angeles' mayor Tom Bradley, a Black man, was running for governor of California. All of the polls showed him with a large lead, as Whites said they would happily vote for a Black man for governor. But he lost. When Whites went to vote their secret ballot, they did not vote as they told pollsters they would.
Could the same thing be happening in Alabama? Many Alabama Republicans are telling pollsters they will not vote for Roy Moore because of his moral lapses (sexual harassment/abuse of teen girls). But they could just be telling pollsters that because they are embarrassed to say they would vote for a child molester just because he is a Republican. But when they go into the voting booth, and no one can see which candidate they vote for, will they vote for the Republican anyway?
I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is a distinct possibility. I think there's a very good chance that Alabama sends a child molester to Congress -- and probably by a significant margin.

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