These were strange years, 2020 and 2021. The world seemed to stop turning, travel came to a standstill. Overnight we forgot our concerns about overtourism and became more concerned about canceling our trips and getting refunds. The numbers are staggering. The World Tourism Organization says the number of international travelers, which peaked at 1.46 billion in 2019, fell to 406 million in 2020 and barely improved to 459 million in 2021.
It took another two years for the industry to recover from the shock - to be fair, airports and air traffic control systems still seem to be struggling - and for many people to feel confident enough to start booking again. But all indications are that the recovery is almost complete this year. WTO figures show that the number of international travelers will reach almost 1 billion in 2022, and it appears we are now approaching 2019 levels again. So it's looking increasingly likely that 2024 will be the biggest travel year in the world. has ever known.
In some places the breakthrough is already underway. The WTO recently published data on the top ten countries contributing to world tourism - in other words, whose populations travel abroad the most - for the first six months of this year. It shows that the number of international travelers departing from Germany, Italy, the United States and Great Britain were all more than ten percent higher than in the same period the year before the pandemic. And it seems that the British are currently the most resilient and determined of all, with growth of 16 percent since 2019.
The rising trend is reflected in the latest figures from IAG, the company that owns British Airways. They show an increase of 69 percent if we compare the first three months of this year with the same period last year. "Customer demand currently remains strong across all IAG airlines and across all regions, particularly for leisure customers," the report said.
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Meanwhile, Ryanair, which operates flights between many European countries, has recorded a 15 percent growth in passenger numbers in the first ten months of this year, compared to the first ten months of 2022. And easyJet has just announced that its total capacity for It sees This is expected to rise to around 97 percent of 2019 levels by 2023. That compares with leading tour operator TUI's report of this summer's bookings, which are back to around 96 percent of pre-pandemic numbers.
What's driving the breakthrough overall is that some key markets are still a long way from the 2019 milestone. The Chinese are lagging 29 percent, while the Koreans (-19 percent) and, perhaps surprisingly, the Australians (-26 percent) have also been slow to resume international travel. But those numbers have likely already improved, as the key months of July-October 2023 have not yet been collected.
In short, now that the new year is just around the corner, it is clear that we will party again like it is 2019 and that our enthusiasm will also increase next year. Our hunger to find some guaranteed sunshine, see new places, get to know unknown cultures and try new experiences has never been greater. And this despite steep price increases, a near-recession across Europe, war in Ukraine and Gaza and all the uncertainties caused by climate change.
But surely there are limits to how much travel can grow, and whether we want it to? There are environmental concerns, of course, and some destinations are certainly reaching the kind of saturation point that became an issue before the pandemic. Venice is one of the best examples of this. This year, the city averaged twice as many day visitors as the 50,000 that the city's Ca' Foscari University considered manageable in 2018. Whether the €5 proposed from next spring for day trippers will be sufficient to combat this is another question. And there are now more tourist beds available for those who want to stay than the number of residents in the city.
But beyond Venice, the current key to whether or not world tourism will continue to grow is not so much the amount of accommodation available. Overall, there are enough hotels, apartments, villas, Air BNBs and holiday homes in the world to meet the rising demand in the shorter term. And even where housing is tight, it appears we are undeterred and willing to be more flexible in our plans to get around the problem. Nick Longman, CEO of Audley Travel, which specializes in tailor-made long-distance travel, told me last week that where there is pressure on availability during peak season, more and more of his customers are willing to book out of season or shoulder season. instead of.
What really makes a difference to the ability to travel is the availability of airplane seats. And all indications are that, as far as British and European airlines are concerned, there will be significant growth next year. Many had already announced extensive programs for 2024 and some have recently added to them.
Last week, Steve Heapy, CEO of Jet2.com and Jet2holidays, said it was already expanding its 2024 summer program by adding an additional 70,000 seats to destinations in mainland Spain, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Portugal, Turkey , Croatia and Greece. from eight UK airports. This was driven by "strong and sustained demand" for summer '24, with the late summer season proving particularly popular. The week before, easyJet had also announced twelve new routes from eight UK airports for its summer 2024 programme.
The only problem seems to be whether airlines can secure enough planes to meet demand. Ryanair said in September it was experiencing delays in the delivery of some of the 57 new planes it has currently ordered from Boeing, although it still hopes to resolve the issue in time for its peak summer program in 2024.
So, for better or for worse, it looks like next year more of the world will be going to certain places than ever before.
