We are now about a month away from the first GOP debate. It will be held by Fox News in conjunction with a GOP meeting in Ohio. The problem is that there are at least 16 candidates, and Fox News has said they will only allow 10 candidates to debate. They say they will allow the 10 candidates with the highest percentage of support in the last five polls to debate -- and the RNC has agreed to their stipulation (being unwilling to go against their media propaganda arm).
The debate is the candidates first opportunity to reach out to a national audience, and possibly get a significant boost for their campaigns. That makes it important to be included in the debate -- and it also is a blow to those who will be left out (because being left out could be interpreted as they are not real candidates).
NBC News did an average of the last 5 national polls, and the results are shown in the chart above. There may be other polls come out before the August debate that changes this, but if the debate was held right now there would be six candidates left out -- Santorum, Florin, Kasich, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki (not shown on the chart because he wasn't in all the polls). The exclusion of Kasich could be embarrassing, since the debate will be held in his home state (where he is still the governor).
Another possible embarrassment is that Donald Trump would be included in the debate. Trump is like a bull in a china shop, and could turn the debate into a real clown show. The RNC knows that, but there seems to be little they can do to prevent it right now.
