If you ask a government representative if our policy regarding Taiwan is a clear one, they would probably say yes. But frankly, I don't think that is true. And I'm not sure anyone in government even knows exactly what our policy is. Would we defend Taiwan if China attacked, or not?
Two of the leading Democrats in government recently seemed to say that we would. On May 23rd, President Biden was asked if the U.S. would use force to defend Taiwan. He answered:
“Yes.”
“That’s the commitment we made.”
And just a few days ago, Speaker Pelosi visited the island nation and said the U.S. would not abandon Taiwan. She went on to say:
"America's determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world, remains ironclad."
That would seem to be.a clear YES. But immediately after those statements government spokesmen said the United States continues to have a "One China" policy. What is the "One China policy"? Here is what the Center for Strategic and International Studies says:
When the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” Sole, meaning the PRC was and is the only China, with no consideration of the ROC as a separate sovereign entity.
The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
If that's not confusing, I'm not sure what could be. We say that the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China, but refuse to recognize their claim to Taiwan. How can both be true? Obviously, both can't be true.
This brings up the question of what would the U.S. do if China invaded Taiwan.
I think the answer is No. We made that clear by our failure to fight for the Ukrainian democracy. We gave them weapons and money, but no U.S. forces are actively engaged in fighting to defend Ukraine. And one of the main reasons is that while they support sending weapons, the American public does not support sending U.S. troops or aircraft. The second reason given is fear of Russia's nuclear weapons.
Frankly, neither is a good reason to not actively defend a democracy under attack. And the Chinese have been watching. They have a better and larger army than the Russians, and they also have nuclear weapons. Why wouldn't they think we would react to an invasion of Taiwan the same way we reacted to the invasion of Ukraine?
Sending weapons and good wishes will not be enough in Taiwan -- and it would be much harder to get those weapons in the country because there will likely be a Chinese blockade. Is the U.S. ready for a war with China (after backing down from war with Russia)? Probably not, and trying to run a Chinese blockade would be a good way to start that war.
China is going to try to take back Taiwan, and it will happen sooner than later. Xi has made it pretty clear he wants it to happen under his leadership.
What will the U.S. do? The current obfuscation is not going to work. The American people need to know what will happen, and so does China and the rest of the world. It is time for the U.S. to establish a clear and unequivocal policy.
