As of this writing, it is still unclear exactly what spot Moshe Feiglin won in the Likud primaries. It is clear though that he fell dramatically to an unrealistic spot, based on even the most optimistic predictions of the eventual election results.
I liked Feiglin, and this is a shame. I thought he basically did a pretty good job in his term as MK. He was unique, he did not do anything too crazy or extreme, he was thoughtful, he got involved in issues in ways that surprised people (e.g. medical marijuana, homosexual rights, etc), and I think the Knesset, and the Likud, will be lacking without Feiglin.
My initial thoughts of why Feiglin dropped so much:
I think Feiglin dropped because of the success of Habayit Hayehudi and Naftali Bennet. Feiglin started his process in the Likud when Mafdal was a tiny and barely influential party. Feiglin saw that the only way for religious and right wing people to be influential is to join the ruling party and not to be involved in the smaller sectorial parties. So, many people who might have naturally supported Mafdal over the years followed Moshe Feiglin to the Likud. They saw him as the ticket to power and influence for the right wing and religious ideology.
What happened now is that Bennet has brought the Mafdal back to being a player. Habayit Hayehudi under Bennet is an influential and powerful party. And they are continuing to grow. And they have changed from being a purely sectorial party for Religious Zionists, to being a newer version of the Likud. Likud 2.0 perhaps. Habayit Hayehudi has secular members, sefardi, ashkenazi, religious, and even Arabs.
All those people, I think, who have supported Feiglin's bid in the Likud, now no longer see a reason to. They see their own more natural home to be welcoming and promising. Habayit Hayehudi is now a place they can feel comfortable in, and even see it as the route to influence. And that is why Habayit Hayehudi has had such a successful campaign registering new members. And I think that is what happened to Feiglin - he was a victim of Habayit Hayehudi's success.
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