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This chart shows the average daily package volume (in millions) for UPS as well as the year-over-year percentage change. Note: UPS reports their data using a traditional calendar quarter system.
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 18.8 2.7% 18.3 3.4% 17.7 2.3% 17.3 0.0% 17.3 -2.3% 17.7
Q3 15.5 2.6% 15.1 0.7% 15.0 4.9% 14.3 -4.0% 14.9 -2.6% 15.3
Q2 15.4 3.4% 14.9 0.7% 14.8 3.5% 14.3 -4.7% 15.0 0.0% 15.0
Q1 16.2 3.8% 15.6 4.0% 15.0 0.7% 14.9 2.8% 14.5 -4.0% 15.1 0.0% 15.1
Total 65.3 63.3 62.4 60.4 62.3 63.1
These numbers have a very strong correlation in time and direction with Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls as well as the S&P 500 Stock Index.
Year-over-Year percentage change in Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% -2.6% -3.7% 0.5%
Q3 1.6% 1.5% 0.6% -4.2% -2.0% 0.9%
Q2 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% -4.9% -0.7% 1.0%
Q1 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% -0.8% -4.7% -0.1% 1.2%
Year-over-Year percentage change in the S&P 500 Stock Index
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 12.2% 3.6% 15.9% 39.1% -40.2% -5.2%
Q3 15.7% 1.7% 10.6% 19.4% -39.0% 7.7%
Q2 14.3% 11.8% 10.1% -20.5% -15.9% 15.6%
Q1 19.2% 2.4% 16.2% 27.1% -34.9% -8.4% 16.9%
FedEx’s average daily package volume also tracks the economy, however, because they use a May 31st year end, the quarters don’t line up quite as nicely.
This chart shows the average daily package volume (in thousands) for FedEx as well as year over year percentage change.
|
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Q4 3,903 9.6% 3,561 -0.6% 3,583 2.0% 3,514 4.5% 3,362 -3.4% 3,481 -1.4% 3,531 Q3 4,045 8.3% 3,735 1.1% 3,696 3.0% 3,587 4.4% 3,437 -4.6% 3,603 2.8% 3,506 Q2 4,019 9.0% 3,686 1.7% 3,626 4.0% 3,485 4.3% 3,340 -6.9% 3,587 7.8% 3,328 Q1 3,661 3.2% 3,547 0.6% 3,527 5.7% 3,336 -0.8% 3,362 -3.3% 3,476 7.5% 3,234 Total 15,628 14,529 14,432 13,922 13,501 14,147 13,599 |
Sources: UPS.com, Fedex.com, StLouisFed.org
