Weekly Stock Market Update for Final Weeks of 2013.

This is the Weekly Stock Market Update for the rest of year. Happy Holidays!  Here is the Stock Market Scenario I am in interested in this Spring. In the post, I promised I would return with an equity post around December 20. I have been tracking the above linked forecast and using it as the foundation for my stock market outlook into March. I will do so, one step at a time, until it is taken away by a contrary stock market move. 

Timing and projections are only part of the overall analysis with setups / risk management and present direction / trend monitoring occupying the other side. So far, the current red line scenario led us correctly back to the 50 DMA.  At the fib confluence, I tracked the correction back to the 50 DMA, which held. 50 DMA Held. This was a fairly obvious move and what we were monitoring in the posts on Twitter:
(1) http://t.co/jAqrdCbIFP (@SoulJester618) December 4, 2013.

(2) http://t.co/dIbLPsFbm8— (@SoulJester618)December 10, 2013.

That the 50 DMA held puts the levitation of the stock market into the end of month scenario into play. This potential was discussed previously because Technology (NDXE) had not hit its time and price confluence. NDXE Post.

Given that the 50 DMA has held so far (50 DMA Held),the scenario where the stock market levitates the following two weeks into the December 27 - January 3 time period is in play. The 21 exponential moving average is a solid bear bull line for this scenario (blue moving average on the chart below). The indicator analog has not been taken out yet, so the theory of a low into mid-March is still my thesis going forward from here. It produced the move to the 50 DMA.  To confirm the analog is in play and not just a thesis, I await a move back below the 21 exponential moving average on the daily chart. Below the 21 exponential moving average is bear territory, and above it is bull territory.  

I have added an "orange scenario" over the primary red line scenario cycles in the event we do get a year end Santa rally. Here are the scenarios again: I am not sold on the market getting to that December 27 to January 3 time confluence and believe it could reverse at any time consistent with the overall thesis. I do not have crystal balls, however,  As always the trend is our friend. Currently, the 50 DMA held, and the trend tools on this chart--the 8 and 21 exponential moving averages--have not crossed and are pointed up. So the trend, our friend,is up. Of course, like many friends, the trend has a habit of always being a little late to the event.

Going forward, I will continue to track the indicator scenario one step at a time into the next days, weeks, and month. The correction to the 50 DMA was the first step. Now, we see if the stock market has the second down move in it sometime between now and early January.

There always exist both a bull and a bear path and only the sands of time know which path we will ultimately take.  As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own decisions.  

Have a great holidays! Peace, Om, SoulJester