Weekly Stock Market Forecast, Update, and Outlook: Week of July 22, 2013

I am early with the weekly market update, forecast, and outlook as it is Thursday, July 18. However, I am out tomorrow and much of next week so wanted to post the update today. It is a simple update. If you have been following, the weekly moves have been tracked well using the 50 DMA on the daily chart.  Click here for Prior Market Update andClick here to go to Discussion about the 50 DMA andClick here to last Week's Update discussing the 50 DMA.
I am currently tracking the two underwater short term Wonderwood Positions that I took despite the chart location and am paying the price for being early. I have been updating those on Twitter.  I will post/tweet when I exit them. For now, I am holding despite the stops being blown out. Not a good strategy.

As for the longer term move and weekly scenarios, we can now refine our bull scenarios which we put on when the 50 DMA was retaken.  Here are the refined scenarios: As you can see, the 50 DMA provides a nice line in the sand for the red melt up scenario versus the blue and purple more bearish scenarios. I am speculating on the more bearish scenarios with the two Wonderwood short positions. Time will tell whether I get hit on these as I suspect I might.

The short term Wonderwood trades since the May 22 top have gathered 13.93 SPY points (139.3 SPX points).  These trades are all posted real time on here and trading in both directions off the top. See Recent Summary here.I am early and taken some heat with the two I have on.  They were not good trades. But, one cannot be right all the time, so I am waiting hopefully until end of next week to see if we get a trip back to the 50 DMA. If we do not, the melt up will eviscerate these trades.  

Peace, Om,

SoulJester