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‘We Have the Right Combination’ to Break SpaceX’s Monopoly

By Elliefrost @adikt_blog

Peter Beck, CEO of Rocket Lab (RKLB), has been an outsider since the company was founded in 2006. Beck is originally from New Zealand and has no university education. He has long been seen as an anti-Elon Musk.

He often reminds his employees: "We have no money, so we have to think."

Now, with his Neutron rocket, a fully reusable, medium-lift launch vehicle scheduled for launch in mid-2025, Beck says he's poised to pose the biggest threat to what he describes as a "tech monopoly" held by Elon Musk and SpaceX.

"50% [of Neutron] "50% is to break the monopoly that currently exists in medium launch," Beck told Yahoo Finance. "50% is to be able to launch our own stuff into orbit. I think we have the right combination of expertise and execution to be a real competitor."

‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly

Beck sees Neutron as "the final piece of the puzzle" in an ongoing quest to build an end-to-end space company. Rocket Lab already provides launch services via its Electron rocket, builds spacecraft and satellite components, and provides on-orbit management.

But despite those successes, Neutron offers the greatest opportunity to make an impact in the industry. If Rocket Lab successfully launches on its timeline, it would be the fastest time to market for a commercially developed mid-range launch vehicle.

More importantly to Beck, it would bring new competition to an industry that SpaceX has largely kept to itself.

"Nobody can compete with Elon to put internet in space unless you have your own rocket and the ability to build any spacecraft you want," Beck said, adding that the company is "very positive" about the launch date after a successful "hot fire" test of its new Archimedes engine.

‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly
‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly

Until recently, launch vehicles focused primarily on launching small satellites. Currently, more than 200 companies are competing for the contract.

Rocket Lab's Electron is a major player with nearly 200 satellites launched to date, but SpaceX has maintained its lead through its SmallSat ride-sharing program, which uses larger payloads on its medium-lift Falcon 9 rocket, combined with aggressive pricing.

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According to Forbes, a regular Falcon 9 launch costs $3,000 per kilogram, while Rocket Lab offers launches for $22,000 per kilogram.

Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said mid-sized vehicles are more efficient, allowing rocket makers to respond to a larger need in the market.

"You could launch a 1,000-kilogram satellite on a small vehicle, or you could launch a few, or 10, or 15 on Falcon 9, depending on the orbit," Swope said. "It's just kind of a multi-purpose workhorse-type vehicle that's very flexible and can do a lot of different types of missions. So it makes sense that [Rocket Lab] diversifies across industries to support commercial space."

‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly
‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly

Rocket Lab has already pushed back the launch date, originally scheduled for late 2024. But the company has already taken aim at SpaceX before launch.

In an interview last year, Rocket Lab CFO Adam Spice said the company would aim to match SpaceX on a cost-per-kilogram basis for satellite customers. He added that Neutron would target "launch service costs of $50 million to $55 million," compared with the $67 million price tag for the Falcon 9.

The pipeline for medium- to heavy-lift rockets is growing. United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Boeing (BA), completed the inaugural flight of its Vulcan heavy-lift rocket in January, while the European Space Agency-backed Ariane 6 completed its first launch last month after years of delays. And Blue Origin's reusable New Glenn rocket is gearing up for a September launch.

The increased competition comes amid growing concern about SpaceX's dominance and influence over the industry, particularly among lawmakers. Earlier this year, a bipartisan group of 36 lawmakers sent a letter to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall urging the Air Force to consider "increased competition among launch providers."

‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly
‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly

According to a New York Times analysis, SpaceX has cumulatively won $14.7 billion in federal launch contracts over the past decade.

"SpaceX has been tremendously successful with the Falcon 9," Beck said. "The challenge there is if you have a competing constellation that you want to launch, [rival] Starlink, some people find that a bit uncomfortable. The government doesn't want to put all its eggs in one basket. So it's really important that we bring some balance to the market with Neutron."

Competition is also heating up outside the U.S. Earlier this month, China launched its first satellite constellation into orbit, a first step in a stated goal to challenge Starlink's hold on the market.

Beck is quick to point out that two-thirds of Rocket Lab's business is in space systems, building satellites and delivering components to customers. The proof, he said, is the fact that 38 percent of everything that went into orbit last year had a Rocket Lab logo somewhere on it. On Friday, the company announced delivery of two spacecraft that would go to Mars, launching from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

A successful launch of Neutron would pose the biggest challenge for Musk and SpaceX.

Meanwhile, Beck says the industry is still in its infancy, and there is still plenty of market share to be gained. He is convinced that companies that cannot own the full stack will not survive.

"The launch demand is coming from all directions, not just one direction or the other," he said. "The transformation or democratization of space that everyone is talking about, we are really in the middle of that."

‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly
‘We have the right combination’ to break SpaceX’s monopoly

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