(These caricature are by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)The Republican clown parade started out huge, but it is already starting to be reduced. The number of clowns in that parade was reduced from 17 to 16, when Rick Perry dropped out. Now it is down to 15. On Monday evening, Scott Walker announced that he has suspended his campaign.
I had thought he would try to hang on a little longer, but his dropping out doesn't really surprise me. He had dropped in the polls like a rock -- from the high teens to low single digits (see chart below), and one recent poll (CNN/ORC Poll) had him at less than 1%. That, coupled with his poor performance in both GOP debates, dried up his campaign funding, and without money a campaign just can't exist.
So, where does this leave the other candidates? Who actually stands a chance of winning the nomination? I give you my opinion (so you can tell me in a few months how wrong I was).
First, there are five candidates that need to go ahead and join Perry and Walker on the sidelines -- Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki. Even after two debates, none of these candidates have been able to get more than 2% support (and most of them even less than that). They are just wasting everyone's time (and their own) with their futile dreams. Frankly, I don't understand why they haven't already realized this.
Then we come to Rand Paul and Chris Christie. Rand Paul has shown libertarians that he is not his father, and his ineffectual campaign (and lackluster performance in the debates) has disappointed them. Christie has committed political suicide by showing voters his corrupt side and his mean side. Both of these men have gone from relevant to irrelevant -- and they have no one to blame but themselves. They hang on for a while longer, but it's over for them.
Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are the current "flavors-of-the-month" for many in the GOP -- but I really can't see the Republican Party nominating either a Black or a woman -- especially considering the faults of these candidates. Fiorina because of her abysmal business record (and willingness to lie), and Carson because he's just a wacky person with ideas even Republicans will eventually find are too weird. They look good now, but both will fade.
Mike Huckabee's time has passed, although he hasn't realized it yet. He was once the darling of the evangelicals, but now most Republicans (and indeed most Americans) just see him as a one-note buffoon. I would be shocked if he even came close to winning the nomination.
John Kasich's main problem is that no one really knows who he is. He might could make a credible run for the nomination if he could get his name out there, and convince people he's a credible candidate -- but I just don't see it happening. He might have a better chance in 2020.
That leaves us with four candidates -- Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio. I believe all of these candidates have at least an outside chance of winning the nomination. It just depends on which wing of the party is able to assert its dominance -- the angry teabagger wing or the moderate/business wing.
If the moderate/business wing wins out, then Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush will be the nominee. I'm guessing Rubio, since Bush still has an albatross named George W. around his neck.
If the angry teabaggers win out, then it will be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. I'm figuring that would be Ted Cruz. I believe Trump has as much support as he could get, but Cruz could build his following as others drop out.
I'm going to go out on a long limb, and predict that the Republican nominee will be Marco Rubio (and you can make fun of me later for that prediction). I hope he isn't their nominee, because I believe he would be the most formidable candidate for them in the general election. I think Hillary Clinton would beat him, but it would be a closer race than if one of the others was nominated.
The chart below was made from a new Morning Consult Poll -- released on September 22nd. They queried 1,551 Republicans (and GOP leaners) for a margin of error of 2.5 points.
