It does not matter whether you are betting on the NFL at a traditional sportsbook or a crypto sports betting site; if you cannot make the right decisions, you will lose more than you win. As a result, before you start placing bets on NFL games, you need to understand how NFL stats and NFL trends work and how they can help you. That is why we’ve pieced this post together to help learn how to use stats and trends to make better NFL predictions.
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What Are NFL Stats
NFL Stats give you glimpses into a team’s weaknesses and strengths. These stats can range from interceptions, yards per rush, completion percentage, third-down conversion rate, and beyond. For instance, you can look at the quarterback’s overall yards per pass. But you also want to consider, on average, how many pass attempts the quarterback makes per game. You should also look at each team’s defensive numbers.
Aside from that, you might want to look at turnover margins. You should understand that turnovers can be a function of luck since interceptions off deflections and fumble recoveries are not sustainable ways to get defensive stops. So, rather than assume each team will keep forcing turnovers at the same rate, you should expect that the team’s turnover ratio on both sides of the ball will fluctuate as the season progresses.
What Are NFL Trends
NFL trends are simply a series of events that show a particular outcome repeating itself over time. So, for instance, you might see that a certain team is 10-1 against the spread in their previous 11 games after a bye. This gives a certain insight into spots where it is beneficial to wager on one side or the other in a game, even if the stats or home-field advantage do not offer a clear edge in a particular direction or another.
However, you need to note that there are good and bad uses of trends. As a result, you need to be careful of what trend falls into which group. One way to do this is to fully grasp how to use NFL trends to help you make better predictions.
How to Use Them
NFL trends and stats can greatly help bettors to make more winning predictions. But, many people do not know how to use them effectively. As a result, this lack of understanding becomes a problem where bettors make misguided decisions. So, when it comes to stats, you should be looking at areas such as yards per play on defense and offense rather than yards per game. Per play, stats spotlights how efficient a defense or an offense is on every play, while per game, statistics experience higher variation.
It is possible for teams to run more or fewer plays per game based on the game’s tempo. But per play, stats erase those tempo-related differences from the equation. In addition, it is worth looking at the quarterback efficiency as it is a better indicator of the success of a passing offense instead of raw statistical numbers.
With trends, you need to remember that NFL rosters experience huge amounts of turnover every year, not to mention over a decade or more. As a result, trends that show team’s performances after their bye week dating as far back as ten years are most likely not useful as the players and coaches would be different as at then and now. Instead, you should look at the last four or five seasons.
Final Thoughts
Once you understand how to use NFL stats and trends, you can use them to make your predictions for your next NFL wagers. As long as you use it correctly, you will discover that your win to loss ratio would improve positively, meaning that you will record more wins than losses. However, you should always ensure that you do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
