Using Package Deliveries to Track the Economy

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It seems to me whenever a major economic data point (such as employment numbers, rate of inflation, etc.) is released there’s also a series of rebuttals released the same day claiming the “real” number is very different because of reasons X,Y and Z.

Sometimes I am inclined to believe the “official” number and sometimes I am inclined to believe the “alternative” number.

One resource I use to help me determine which side to believe is by reviewing any changes in the number of packages being shipped.

These charts show the average daily package volume for UPS as well as the year-over-year percentage change.

These numbers have a very strong correlation in time and direction with Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls as well as the S&P 500 Stock Index

FedEx’s average daily package volume also tracks the economy, however, because they use a May 31^st year end, the quarters don’t line up quite as nicely.

This chart shows the average daily package volume (in thousands) for FedEx as well as year over year percentage change.

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Q4 3,903 9.6% 3,561 -0.6% 3,583 2.0% 3,514 4.5% 3,362 -3.4% 3,481 -1.4% 3,531 Q3 4,045 8.3% 3,735 1.1% 3,696 3.0% 3,587 4.4% 3,437 -4.6% 3,603 2.8% 3,506 Q2 4,019 9.0% 3,686 1.7% 3,626 4.0% 3,485 4.3% 3,340 -6.9% 3,587 7.8% 3,328 Q1 3,661 3.2% 3,547 0.6% 3,527 5.7% 3,336 -0.8% 3,362 -3.3% 3,476 7.5% 3,234 Total 15,628 14,529 14,432 13,922 13,501 14,147 13,599

What about you?

What non-traditional data points do you regularly review?

Sources: UPS.com, Fedex.com, StLouisFed.org