In the third quarter of last year, the number of people that identified with the Democratic or Republican parties (or leaned toward those parties) were equal -- with about 42% saying they favored each party. But that was when the Republicans had 17 candidates, and people believed they could find a good candidate to represent them.
Now the GOP race has narrowed to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz (and John Kasich who continues to deny reality). The thought of a Trump or Cruz presidency is scaring people, and voters are moving to favor the Democratic Party more. Republican identification (or leaning) has dropped to 40%, and Democratic identification (or leaning) has risen to 46%. That gives the Democrats a current 6 point advantage -- and I believe that advantage will continue to grow.
The current numbers are from a Gallup Poll survey done in the month of March, where 15,243 adults were polled with a margin of error of only 1 point. Previous months had a similar number of people questioned and margin of error.
