The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published new guidelines on their website that estimate that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.
The agency also says its "best guess" is that 0.4% of people with symptoms and who have Covid-19 will die, and it estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission occurs before people get infected. feel sick.
In the guide, intended for modellers and public health officials, the CDC presents five potential scenarios. Four represent "the lower and upper limits of disease severity and viral transmissibility". The fifth is the CDC's "current best estimate of viral transmission and severity of the disease in the United States."
In this scenario, the agency describes its estimate that 0.4% of people who feel sick with Covid-19 will die. For people 65 and older, the CDC puts this figure at 1.3%. For people aged 49 and under, the agency says that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die. It assumes that people without symptoms are just as contagious as those with symptoms.
The agency also estimates that 3.4% of symptomatic people with Covid-19 will require hospitalization, this number reaching 7.4% in people aged 65 and over.
In the most serious scenario, the CDC assumes that 1% of all people with Covid-19 and symptoms will die. In the least severe scenario, the CDC places this figure at 0.2%.
"The scenarios aim to advance public health preparation and planning. These are not forecasts or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19, "says the CDC.
The agency also notes that its numbers may change as more is learned about Covid-19, and says they "do not reflect the impact of any change in behavior, social distancing or other interventions." " This would be relevant for some agency estimates, such as the number of infections resulting from each case.
With these caveats, the CDC said the new figures are based on actual data received before April 29. The CDC has characterized them as preliminary estimates from federal agencies, including the CDC and the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for preparedness and response.
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