On September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland. Britain and France immediately went to war. It ended badly for Hitler and Germany. Will Putin, knowing that history, invade Ukraine? The risks of war are always huge. Sensible prudence says back off.
But why gear up for invasion and not follow through? Maybe Putin thought the threat alone would exact concessions. It hasn’t. Or he sees his manhood at stake now. Or believes his propaganda about restoring Russia’s “great” empire. He’s apparently surrounded by yes-men egging him on. May miscalculate the risks.
The supposed casus belli is concern over Ukraine someday joining NATO. Why should Russia have any say about that? And why would it threaten Russia’s security anyway? NATO is a defensive alliance. Ukraine joining would hurt Russia only if Russia actually fancies attacking Ukraine — which it still denies. But arguing such points is playing Putin’s damned game.
Actually, we should have brought Ukraine into NATO in the ’90s, as a fait accompli. Russia under Yeltsin was not our enemy. Indeed, we should have done much more then to enfold Russia itself securely into the community of decent nations.
Another thing that should have been done — after Russia’s 2014 aggression — was canceling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (not yet in operation), for delivery of Russian natural gas to Germany and Europe (bypassing, and harming, Ukraine). Giving Russia such a hold on Germany’s balls was foolish (especially after Germany rashly closed its nuclear plants).
Germany has lately been wobbly toward Russia, actually blocking some weapons for Ukraine. But President Biden yesterday, meeting with German leader Scholz, said that if Ukraine is invaded, NS2 won’t go forward. And Scholz seemed to agree.
Cutting off Europe’s Russian gas supplies would hurt both sides; costing Russia many billions. But fears about this have meantime driven up oil and gas prices — gaining Russia many billions.
Russia invading Ukraine would be a monstrous crime, a holocaust of suffering and death. And Biden has said it would change the world. Back into one ruled by the law of the jungle, where might makes right.
Fox’s Tucker Carlson defends Russia and Putin. Showing how far off the rails American “conservatism” has gone.
Conventional wisdom predicts Russia would roll over Ukraine. Part of the offensive will be cyber warfare, to cripple Ukraine’s defensive infrastructure. However, as War and Peace illuminated, what counts most in war is troop motivation and morale.
Ukrainians will be fighting for their country and its future as a modern democratic nation. That’s what Putin really fears: Ukraine as a model for what Russia could be, but isn’t. And despite Ukraine’s ancestral links with Russia, now most Ukrainians hate Russia as an enemy.
Russia’s army, on the other hand, is mostly reluctant conscripts, treated wretchedly. Morale must suck. Will they throw away their lives for Putin’s grandiosity?
We must do all we can to defeat the evil now facing us. There are things worth fighting for.
But this needn’t mean all-out war with Russia, or even sending troops to Ukraine. We must fully equip Ukraine with missiles and drones to kill tanks and shoot down planes. Make Russia pay the biggest possible price. No stinting; no squeamishness.
