A lot of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons were stored in Ukraine. Thus when the USSR broke up, an independent Ukraine found itself with the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to denuclearize — in return for a guarantee that its borders would be inviolate. This agreement was signed by the U.S. and Russia.
Russia now says, “That was then” — agreed by a different government — so no longer binding. That’s not how international agreements work. But even if there were no Budapest Memorandum, international law as commonly understood would still bar the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty committed by Russia.
That already happened in 2014 when Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine by military force, as well as instigating two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, separating themselves from Ukraine. Later that year in the Minsk Accords, which Russia signed, it was agreed that those two regions would be accorded “special status” within Ukraine, though the nature of that status was left undefined.
Today Putin made a big ceremonial show of recognizing the two regions as independent states. This violates the Minsk Accords — as well as, of course, the Budapest Memorandum (again). And the Russian puppet regimes in those two “states” have asked Russia to send troops to defend them against Ukrainian attack. Which is absolutely not in contemplation (it would be insane for Ukraine). All of this stage managed by Putin to provide a pretext for Russian forces to cross the border — a “peacekeeping mission!” — obviously the thin edge of the wedge, the first step toward a full-scale invasion aimed at annexing Ukraine.
Further provocations for it will also be fictitiously cooked up. (Why even bother? Everybody knows the reality.) This will be a criminal war upon the Ukrainian people. Reliable intelligence sources reportedly indicate that extensive murderous repression is already planned.
Ukraine itself should recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions, renouncing all claim to them. Tell them: “You love Russia so much? Fine. Go be Russian. We wash our hands of you.” Ukraine would actually be better off without them.
And this would spike Russia’s guns, denying Putin even his thoroughly phony pretext for invading the rest of Ukraine. Though even that might not actually prevent the horror upon which Putin seems so malignantly and crazily determined. (And might be political suicide for Ukrainian President Zelensky, who’d be called a sellout traitor.)
But there is actually precedent for what I suggest. In the 1967 war, Israel seized the West Bank, a big chunk of what had been part of Jordan. Its inhabitants were mostly Palestinians which Jordan’s King Hussain saw as more of a problem than a boon for his country. He didn’t fancy fighting Israel for control of the West Bank. So he washed his hands of it; renounced Jordan’s claim to the territory. I thought that move (so rare in world annals) was breathtakingly sensible.
I wonder how many Ukrainians today think giving up nuclear weapons in 1994 was a terrible mistake. Invading a nuclear-armed Ukraine would presumably be unthinkable.
America and our allies are backing Ukraine by vowing to punish Russia with sanctions. Putin is not deterred. Had we sent some U.S. troops into Ukraine, that might well have deterred him; he’s up for taking on Ukraine militarily, but probably not America. But we’ve forsworn a military role. Clearly today’s Americans have no appetite for such a real war.
Over decades, we’ve spent untold trillions building the world’s greatest military machine ever. One must ask: what, after all, is it for, if not this? This is not just some little peripheral conflict of no vital concern to us. To the contrary, Russia conquering Ukraine would change the world, restoring it to the ancient rule of the jungle, of might makes right, the strong free to prey upon the weak. America become, for all its vast military power, an impotent giant. Overthrowing the global order we had built over the past seven decades, that kept peace among major powers and facilitated the commerce that made the whole world so much more prosperous — gigantically benefiting America.
If that’s not worth a fight, what ever could be?
