For months now, Donald Trump has been trading insults and threats with the leader of North Korea. Now he seems to be upping his game, and setting this country on a path to war on the Korean peninsula. Consider these recent events:
* A few days ago, in a press meeting with top military advisors, Trump told the press that this is "the calm before the storm". When asked what he meant by that cryptic remark, Trump would only reply "You'll see".
* A couple of days later, Trump tweeted that negotiations with North Korea have failed and "only one thing will work!".
* Defense Secretary James Mattis told Army officials that they "must stand ready" and "have military options that our president can employ if needed".
That certainly sounds like Trump is seriously planning to attack North Korea. Trump has evidently learned nothing from our nation's misadventures in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. He seems to think that the U.S. military can attack North Korea with impunity. He is wrong.
North Korea has clearly shown that it cannot be bullied into compliance with U.S. wishes. And their leader is nearly as crazy as Donald Trump. He would reply to a military attack with a military attack of his own (against U.S. bases in Korea and/or Seoul, South Korea). Thousands of lives would be lost -- maybe hundreds of thousands.
Would anything actually be accomplished? It is unlikely that an attack could destroy all of North Korea's nuclear and missile capability (and anything destroyed would be quickly replenished). And there is no way the United States can defeat North Korea and establish a Western-leaning government there. China would never allow that, and if it looked like it could happen, millions of Chinese troops would cross into North Korea (just like they did in the first Korean War). The best outcome we could hope for is a return to the current status quo (facing off at the 38th parallel).
And don't think other nation's would flock to involve themselves in a war Trump started unnecessarily. There would be no U.N. involvement -- Russia and China would block any attempt to send U.N. troops there. It is also unlikely that our European allies would want to escalate a Trump attack into a new World War.
It would be insane to attack North Korea. But Trump is insane, and he could well do that. Note the chart at the top of this post. The American people remain convinced that Trump is likely to get us into a new war (59% to 26%).
That chart reflects the results of a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between October 1st and 3rd of a random national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,298 registered voters), with a 3.1 point margin of error.
