A day or two before the Democratic debate, CNN released results of their new polls in Nevada and South Carolina for Democratic candidates. Yesterday, they released the Republican figures in that same poll. This CNN / ORC Poll was done between October 3rd and 10th of 285 Nevada Republicans (with a 6 point margin of error) and 521 South Carolina Republicans (with a 4.5 point margin of error).
As you can see in the charts above, Trump has a significant lead in both states (the 3rd and 4th states to make their presidential choices early next year). Trump (38%) leads Carson (22%) by 16 points in Nevada. Trump (36%) leads Carson (18%) by 18 points in South Carolina. They are the only candidates to reach double-digit support in either states. Fiorina is third in Nevada with 8%, and Rubio is third in South Carolina with 9%.
I still can't see Carson as the Republican nominee, but I am starting to think that Trump could actually win the nomination. The teabaggers love him, and they control the party in many states -- and if one of the establishment candidates (Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Christie) doesn't start climbing, I could see that wing of the party eventually joining the teabaggers in supporting Trump. They might not like his bellicose behavior or his stand on immigration, but they could live with those to get his tax plan (which would benefit the rich and corporations) -- and to keep an even worse nut from winning (Cruz, Huckabee, Paul).
