With all the drama about President Donald Trump's threats to ban the International Chinese social networking sensation TikTokTech watchers in the US haven't spent that much time thinking about what Ban on TenCents WeChat could also lead to it. A well-connected Apple analyst cracked the numbers, estimating that if a WeChat-only ban goes into effect, iPhone sales worldwide could fall by as much as 30%, suggesting it might even continue after a TikTok ban could sink. Other Apple products could see a decline of up to 25%, the analyst added.
In a notice to investors published by AppleInsider and MacRumors, Ming-Chi Kuo wrote, "We believe that WeChat is very important to Chinese users and integrates communication, payment, e-commerce, social software, message reading and productivity functions that the move will fuel iPhone shipments in the Chinese market. "
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Kuo based his estimates on a belief that if the WeChat ban is enforced, it will likely be pushed out of Apple's App Store worldwide. Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany didn't respond to a request for additional details on whether Trump will block WeChat or TikTok from spreading on the App Store.
"The government has set itself the goal of protecting the American people from all cyber threats. These apps collect significant amounts of private data about users. This data can be accessed and used by the People's Republic of China," she said during a press conference on Thursday. "TikTok has a documented history of censoring free speech to match Chinese Communist Party's propaganda, and we take American data very seriously."
The estimate marks the latest in how analysts try to understand what Trump's government bans on the two Chinese apps on our smartphones, that would mean for companies like Apple. Trump is often criticized for making political decisions, such as introducing import tariffs that raise prices for American industry and consumers.
As a result of Trump's threats, companies are trying to circumvent the ban. Microsoft has expressed Interested in purchasing part or all of TikTok, for example. The social network, which has more than a billion downloads worldwide and 100 million users in the US, also said it plans to sue in an attempt to stop the ban.
Kuo said he expected Apple to comply with a ban if it goes through. The company removed WeChat from its app store in India when the local government introduced its own ban in June.
If the bans go into effect, a best-case scenario, according to Kuo, is that Apple would just be forced to remove the Chinese apps from its US app store. In that case, iPhone sales would drop as much as 6% and other Apple devices would likely drop less than 3%.
"In theory, the US government will not harm Apple," wrote Kuo. "The US presidential election is just around the corner, however, and we believe Trump will have more aggressive election strategies, including asking Apple to remove WeChat from global app stores."
