The technology company will begin the quarterly income season next week with Tata Consultation Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Wipro releasing their numbers. Experts expect revenue growth to be healthy despite seasonal factors, driven by the prospect of strong demand amid digitalization. The MIDCAP IT company is likely to continue to outperform large hat companies.
The Nifty It index jumped 60 percent by 2021 and rose 10.5 percent in the quarter ended in December, outperformed other sectors and Nifty 50, which fell 1.5 percent during the quarter due to high assessment and US Federal Reserve tightening.
Tech Mahindra was the largest enhancer among its shares in the December quarter, up 30 percent, followed by Infotech L & T with a 27 percent increase. Mindtree, Wipro, Infosys and Coforge strengthened 12-14 percent, while HCL Technologies rose 3 percent. TCS performs poorly, falls 1 percent.
Top line performance
Analyst estimates the third quarter (October-December) from FY22 into another strong for IT companies as a large cap (Tier-1) is expected to report 2.5-4.5 percent of income growth in the terms of the constant currency, and the MIDCAP company (Tier -II) arranged to clock 3.5-6.5 percent of the upper line growth in the term constant currency, driven by a healthy agreement. Dollar revenue growth tends to be 2-3.3 percent a quarter per quarter. December generally lean months because of the Christmas and New Year holidays.
“Apart from the impact of leave, we estimate very strong income growth led by high and sustainable discretionary transformation costs,” said institutional equity box. “Wipro, Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies are likely to provide around 4.5 percent growth in constant currency. We estimate infosys growth at 3.7 percent and TCS to provide QOQ growth 2.6 percent simple.”
The broker said the mid-medium company could provide a revenue growth rate of 5-6 percent in a constant currency, with YOY growth 20-34 percent.
The company will have a cross-currency headwinds of 20-90 basis points due to the dollar appreciation of the pound, euro and Australian dollar, he said. One base points are equal to a hundredth percent.
Elara Capital expects TIER-1 IT service companies to report organic growth in the range of 2.5-4 percent of Qoq in a constant currency.
“The average revenue growth in the term USD is expected to be 3.1 percent of Qoq, dragged by the impact of cross-negative currencies of around 65 BP Qoq. Growth momentum has been strong though seasonal and a strong base (more than 4 percent cqgr for four quarters Finally), “said Elara. CQGR refers to a quarterly quarterly growth rate.
Growth momentum is supported by the flow of healthy (small and medium) agreement, the trajectory of the value of a better annual contract value, and the growth of takeoff and volume, broker said.
In the MIDCAP room, “Mindtree, L & T Infotech and a persistent system are expected to lead growth in the package and will post a two-digit mid-digit to high sequential growth,” Elara said.
Winning agreement
The winning agreement is expected to stay healthy, but reporting the total value of the contract (TCV) may not reflect strength in fully demand.
“We hope to deal with intake to stay healthy throughout the company in Q3,” said Global Emkay.
However, TCV may remain stable because the tenures’ agreement has become shorter with clients who want digital transformation projects to be implemented in short ranges than signing a long-term offer, which takes a long-term test and legal process, Emkay said.
Pipe strong deal in the IT sector, driven by Uptick in contracts related to cloud adoption, digital transformation and transforming customer experience, brokers added.
Accenture’s latest results create buoyancy among IT companies, indicating that technology growth will continue and stay up.
FY22 guide.
Infoss and L & T technology services are expected to revise the guidance of the revenue growth of constant currency full up.
“We hope that Infosys tightens the guide band to 17-17.5 percent from 16.5-17.5 percent earlier,” said the box.
Infosys started the year with a revenue growth guide of 12-14 percent. HCL Technologies estimates that two-digit income growth.
“We hope that HCL Technologies provides revenue growth of around 12 percent in a constant currency for FY22. L & T technology raises income growth guidance after the results of the quarter of September to 19-20 percent. We believe it can improve guidelines to 20-21 percent,” said Box.
EMKAY expects infosys to revise the FY22 revenue growth guidelines to 17.5-18 percent year-on-year, while the capital of IDBI expects infosys to increase 18-19 percent.
According to the two brokers, Wipro can project growth in QOQ 2-4 percent in a constant currency for the fourth quarter of FY22.
Operating performance
Income before interest and tax margins are expected to be stable in sequence and lower on the basis of year to year because of the high base in the second quarter. The friction rate is expected to remain on the higher side.
There are many benefits in December such as a revised delay of wages (except for TCS), travel costs that can be ignored and pullback in discretionary expenditure. The company has launched a wage increase twice since the December 2020 quarter, which reflects a yoy decline in the margin.
The margin image will be stable with a sequential basis with primary headwinds that come from friction refilling with lateral recruitment, which costs 25-30 percent more, a decrease in the utilization rate when the company contains a fresher, and increased rise in discretionary costs, said Box.
“This will be offset to a certain extent through further operating tightening,” said the box, adding all companies to report a yoy decline in the EBIT margin.
In essence, Motilal Oswal expects Tier-I technology companies to provide growth of around 11 percent yoy and around 6 percent of Qoq.
“Tier-II players are expected to report strong pat growth (around 23 percent yoy and 6 percent Qoq), driven by strong income growth, but are partly offset by lower EBIT margins,” he said.
Key factor factor
Handle victory and pipe offering, prospects, friction and recruitment trends, comment on IT CY22 budgets, demand environment in banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), manufacturing, retail, and communication, environmental pricing and digital trends are the main factor for the liver heart.
Shares to bet
Message Pecking Emkay is Infosys, TCS, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra among Tier-1 and Route Mobile companies, Mphasis, FirstSource Solutions, E-Clerx Services, Systems and Birhirlasoft.
Motilal Oswal prefers Tier-i companies, considering the attraction and tendency of relative assessment to narrow the differential assessment from time to time.
“Among the Tier-i players, we like Infosys, HCL Technologies, and TCS. In Tier-II, we prefer L & T technology services and Zen Technologies.
Elara Capital prefers Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech among Tier-1 firm and Mphasis among Mid level IT companies. The capital of IDBI prefers InfoOSys and Wipro among large hats and zensar, Birlasoft and Tech Mahindra among midcaps.
The box is still constructive in the room, although the return will be moderate from here.
“Infosys, HCL Technologies and Mphasis are our main choice,” said the box.
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